Hailed as the biggest grudge match in the promotion’s history, the duel opposing former UFC LHW champion Quentin Jackson to another former champ, Rashad Evans, is expected to draw large audiences. As to whether it will deliver an exciting battle, the promotion’s marketing campaign can’t be as categorical as it is with its hype.
The fight itself opposes two fighters with different skill sets. Nowadays, Rampage Jackson (30-7) relies almost exclusively on his incredible KO power from both hands. Back in his Pride years, Jackson seemed more willing to diversify his palate. It makes him quite predictable, though his Herculean power always prevents his opponents from taking him lightly.
Since his arrival in the UFC early in 2007, Jackson has stopped half his battles early with his fists. And the fact that he has chomped down such fighters as Wanderlei Silva and Chuck Liddell isn’t to be overlooked either. Jackson will be entering the cage valued at -115, the same as his opponent.
Rashad Evans (14-1-1) has power, but nothing that compares to Jackson’s. His spectacular KO of Chuck Liddell at UFC 88 constituted more a classic demonstration of the potency of a precise hit to the jaw than an illustration of his power. His real assets remain his wrestling abilities and his conditioning. 
His last outing against Thiago Silva marked an official return to his wrestling pedigree. Takedowns galore, positioning, etc. Unfortunately, Evans never capitalized on those many opportunities and his frustration grew as the fight progressed. Silva’s heavy hands seemed to scare off Evans during the last half of the 3-round bout, but Evans’ relentless efforts at takedowns during the first 7 minutes of the 15 min. fight sufficed to earn him a UD win.
Following his devastating championship loss to Lyoto Machida a year ago, Evans seems to have pressed the ‘reset’ button. Once an NCAA Division I wrestler, and with the capable support offered by his training camp, Greg Jackson’s Submission Fighting in New Mexico, Sugar Evans appears to have gone back to basics and focuses on his natural assets instead on relying on his striker’s ambitions, as he had during the Liddell, Griffin and Machida fights.
Why is Evans’ recent fight history so important when predicting the outcome of the Evans-Jackson battle? Because Rampage Jackson’s learning curve is notoriously flat and modern MMA has evolved into an interdisciplinary era, something that Jackson’s camp, UK’s Wolfslair, hasn’t grasped yet. Jackson will inevitably have trained for takedowns, but defending against those will drain Jackson’s conditioning, another element of his arsenal that could stand to be improved.
Look for Evans to shoot early and to kick Rampage’s legs in order to neutralize his power. The fact that Rampage can’t be bothered to check kicks will cost him dearly. Evans will look to squeeze every ounce of that strategic edge against the UFC’s best known brawler. It should prove successful enough to earn him a UD win.
The lead-up fight to the main event will feature MW Michael Bisping (18-3) taking on a substantial opponent in Dan Miller (11-3-1). Odds have Bisping entering the Octagon as the favourite (-180) against Miller (+150). To make a long story short, Bisping’s improving ground game will get tested like never before against Miller, an accomplished BJJ artist with decent conditioning abilities. Look for Miller to pull the upset and win by TKO in the 3rd. That fight could also provide enough intensity to get awarded the Fight of the Night purse.
The HW bout opposing Todd Duffee (6-0) to Mike Russow (12-1-1) presents a traditional match-up between a young and promising striker (Duffee) to a seasoned wrestler with good BJJ skills. Duffee is the overwhelming favourite (-375) to win against the Chicago police officer (+275), but lines for this fight seem overly hyped due to Duffee’s lightning fast KO win over Tim Hague back at UFC 102. Russow will put pressure early, forcing Duffee to focus on fending off relentless takedown attempts. It might be enough to throw him off his game. Russow by UD, providing the biggest surprise of the night.
The LHW fight between Antônio Rogério Nogueira (18-3) and Jason Brilz (18-2-1) doesn’t appear to be toughest to predict on paper. Lil’ Nog is the overwhelming favourite (-600) against Forrest Griffin’s replacement (+400). Lil’ Nog will give a great boxing clinic and should finish his opponent in the 1st round by TKO. 
Last but not least, Diego Sanchez’ return to the WW division against John Hathaway should place among the night’s top fights. Sanchez (21-3) will wish to avenge his humbling defeat to then LW champ, BJ Penn, back at UFC 107. The outcome of that fight should make it plain to UFC matchmakers that Hathaway’s record of 12-0 needs to be put into context, as wins over Paul Taylor, Rick Story and Thomas Egan won’t have prepared the Englishman for his bout against a well-rounded adversary like Sanchez. Lines for that fight favour Sanchez (-220) over Hathaway (+175). Sanchez by TKO in the 3rd.
Lines from Betus.com as of May 29, 2010
Photos from Sherdog.com and Susumu Nagao’s gallery.
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