UFC 114; Rampage and Evans settle their score

Hailed as the biggest grudge match in the promotion’s history, the duel opposing former UFC LHW champion Quentin Jackson to another former champ, Rashad Evans, is expected to draw large audiences. As to whether it will deliver an exciting battle, the promotion’s marketing campaign can’t be as categorical as it is with its hype.

The fight itself opposes two fighters with different skill sets. Nowadays, Rampage Jackson (30-7) relies almost exclusively on his incredible KO power from both hands. Back in his Pride years, Jackson seemed more willing to diversify his palate. It makes him quite predictable, though his Herculean power always prevents his opponents from taking him lightly.

Since his arrival in the UFC early in 2007, Jackson has stopped half his battles early with his fists. And the fact that he has chomped down such fighters as Wanderlei Silva and Chuck Liddell isn’t to be overlooked either. Jackson will be entering the cage valued at -115, the same as his opponent.

Rashad Evans (14-1-1) has power, but nothing that compares to Jackson’s. His spectacular KO of Chuck Liddell at UFC 88 constituted more a classic demonstration of the potency of a precise hit to the jaw than an illustration of his power. His real assets remain his wrestling abilities and his conditioning.

His last outing against Thiago Silva marked an official return to his wrestling pedigree. Takedowns galore, positioning, etc. Unfortunately, Evans never capitalized on those many opportunities and his frustration grew as the fight progressed. Silva’s heavy hands seemed to scare off Evans during the last half of the 3-round bout, but Evans’ relentless efforts at takedowns during the first 7 minutes of the 15 min. fight sufficed to earn him a UD win.

Following his devastating championship loss to Lyoto Machida a year ago, Evans seems to have pressed the ‘reset’ button. Once an NCAA Division I wrestler, and with the capable support offered by his training camp, Greg Jackson’s Submission Fighting in New Mexico, Sugar Evans appears to have gone back to basics and focuses on his natural assets instead on relying on his striker’s ambitions, as he had during the Liddell, Griffin and Machida fights.

Why is Evans’ recent fight history so important when predicting the outcome of the Evans-Jackson battle? Because Rampage Jackson’s learning curve is notoriously flat and modern MMA has evolved into an interdisciplinary era, something that Jackson’s camp, UK’s Wolfslair, hasn’t grasped yet. Jackson will inevitably have trained for takedowns, but defending against those will drain Jackson’s conditioning, another element of his arsenal that could stand to be improved.

Look for Evans to shoot early and to kick Rampage’s legs in order to neutralize his power. The fact that Rampage can’t be bothered to check kicks will cost him dearly. Evans will look to squeeze every ounce of that strategic edge against the UFC’s best known brawler. It should prove successful enough to earn him a UD win.

The lead-up fight to the main event will feature MW Michael Bisping (18-3) taking on a substantial opponent in Dan Miller (11-3-1). Odds have Bisping entering the Octagon as the favourite (-180) against Miller (+150). To make a long story short, Bisping’s improving ground game will get tested like never before against Miller, an accomplished BJJ artist with decent conditioning abilities. Look for Miller to pull the upset and win by TKO in the 3^rd. That fight could also provide enough intensity to get awarded the Fight of the Night purse.

The HW bout opposing Todd Duffee (6-0) to Mike Russow (12-1-1) presents a traditional match-up between a young and promising striker (Duffee) to a seasoned wrestler with good BJJ skills. Duffee is the overwhelming favourite (-375) to win against the Chicago police officer (+275), but lines for this fight seem overly hyped due to Duffee’s lightning fast KO win over Tim Hague back at UFC 102. Russow will put pressure early, forcing Duffee to focus on fending off relentless takedown attempts. It might be enough to throw him off his game. Russow by UD, providing the biggest surprise of the night.

The LHW fight between Antônio Rogério Nogueira (18-3) and Jason Brilz (18-2-1) doesn’t appear to be toughest to predict on paper. Lil’ Nog is the overwhelming favourite (-600) against Forrest Griffin’s replacement (+400). Lil’ Nog will give a great boxing clinic and should finish his opponent in the 1^st round by TKO. 

Last but not least, Diego Sanchez’ return to the WW division against John Hathaway should place among the night’s top fights. Sanchez (21-3) will wish to avenge his humbling defeat to then LW champ, BJ Penn, back at UFC 107. The outcome of that fight should make it plain to UFC matchmakers that Hathaway’s record of 12-0 needs to be put into context, as wins over Paul Taylor, Rick Story and Thomas Egan won’t have prepared the Englishman for his bout against a well-rounded adversary like Sanchez. Lines for that fight favour Sanchez (-220) over Hathaway (+175). Sanchez by TKO in the 3^rd.

Lines from Betus.com as of May 29, 2010

Photos from Sherdog.com and Susumu Nagao’s gallery.

A look back at UFC 109, purses and bonuses

The past UFC gala won’t contribute much reel-wise to the organization’s vault, though it yielded an unexpected shake-up in the MW division as Chael Sonnen turned in a performance that proves he’s worth being given a shot at the title in the near future.

Starting on a high note, the very impressive, and downright, gory war between Chael Sonnen and Nate Marquardt really showed how deep the UFC’s MW division is. Sonnen, the heavy underdog, earned a grinding three-round unanimous decision. He also lost a disturbing amount of blood near the end of the 2^nd round due to an elbow strike from Marquardt. Sonnen used his superior strength (superior to Marquardt!) to bully his opponent to the ground where he efficiently neutralized his opponent’s BJJ skills for the majority of the time. Using very short elbows and punches from a very compact dominant position, Sonnen out-strategized and outpaced Marquardt, who didn’t expect to be challenged to the mat repeatedly and successfully. Most surprising was that Marquardt appeared winded towards the end. Nonetheless, Sonnen fought his best fight and his efforts landed him to share the FOTN award ($60,000 each) with Marquardt, on top of his initial $32,000 salary and $32,000 win bonus. Marquardt earned $45,000. A possible next fight for Sonnen would be, in appearance, a much less demanding bout (after going three rounds against Marquardt…) against another black belt BJJ who shared the main card billing at 109, Damian Maia. Interestingly, Anderson Silva’s manager has already deflected inquiries towards Maia.

The WW bout opposing Paulo Thiago to Mike Swick proved unsuccessful to Swick, who lost a second fight in a row. Swick wanted to get back on the proverbial horse after his disappointing UD loss to Dan Hardy back in November. Hence, he chose to step in for an injured Koscheck and face a top 10 opponent less than three months after his last fight during which his chin got tested several times. In a way, he lucked out with Hardy as he could very accurately expect a stand up match. It did, though he didn’t expect to be on the losing end. His punching power, defensive strategy and timing had room to improve. Over eager, he accepted a match-up for UFC 109 with a black belt BJJ guy who stood with Jon Fitch for three rounds and managed to walk out of the Octagon earning a round in the exchange. From the beginning Thiago’s BJJ put Swick at an immediate disadvantage, the striker’s main focus consisting of avoiding the fight to drop to the ground. Though Thiago gave him enough time to wind up and pepper him a few times, Swick couldn’t really find his range against the Brasilian. Early in the second, Thiago landed a punch that made Swick’s knees buckle. Thiago pounced on him as he fell and ended up choking him. The Brasilian earned $90,000, including $30,000 for his win and $60,000 for being awarded the Submission Of The Night bonus. Mike Swick netted $43,000.

The masterclass mens 40 + exhibition, better known as the main event, opposing Randy ‘The Natural’ Couture to Mark ‘The Hammer’ Coleman, hopefully came to spell a decisive end for ‘The Hammer’ and his career in arenas fighting on pay-per-view billings. The guy was great. He should take great pride for trailblazing for the many others who have followed. As for contending for LHW credentials in the UFC, he should move on. Coleman looked heavy on his feet, landed one good shot, and for the remainder of the fight (about 5 mins out of 6 and change) got beaten up against the cage, on the ground, and while exchanging on his feet. In addition, he looked tired halfway in the first round. Couture netted $250,000 (no win bonus) while Coleman received $60,000 for losing very badly.

The MW bout opposing Damian Maia to Dan Miller turned out to be somewhat of a boring fight, as Miller’s recently awarded black belt BJJ skills were effective and frustrated Maia, who resorted to display his much improved boxing. He did enough to win a UD, losing a round on his way there. Maia earned $62,000, including a $31,000 win bonus, for his evening’s work while Miller got $15,000 for showing grit through all three rounds.

Lastly, the WW bout pitting Matt Serra to Frank Trigg gave MMA fans another opportunity to witness two guys who have already fought their best fights. This time, Serra KO’ed Trigg, adding to Trigg’s collection of KOs and SUBs sustained in the first round. That’s 6 losses out of 27 fights, for those who care count. Serra received $150,000, including a $75,000 win bonus, as well as the KOTN award worth $60,000 for his effort. Insisting to remain in the UFC, no matter what the evidence says, fetches $30,000 nowadays. Ask Frank Trigg.

Photos by Dave Mandel, Sherdog.com

Predictions for UFC 109 and the battle between the “two geezers”

Saturday’s event at Mandalay Bay won’t be anything worth writing to a relative about. In fact, it should be understood as a lighter appetizer for the real big show happening hours later in Miami, Super Bowl XXXXIV. Apart from the bout involving Marquardt, few fights will feature top contenders, and due to injuries and a free two-bout affair airing on Spike, the UFC’s Feb. 6^th gala in Vegas has become much less interesting. Keeping in mind the main event was originally expected to have Anderson Silva face Vitor Belfort, in addition to Lil’ Nog go against Brandon Vera. 109 now features Mark Coleman in a main event. Does his insurance actually cover that level of risk?

Starting with the main event, the LHW bout opposing two guys in their mid-forties that have already fought their best fights. Years ago.  Randy ‘The Natural’ Couture, coming off a boring decision win over Brandon Vera, will face Mark ‘The Hammer’ Coleman, a UFC legend in the late 90s up until early in the last decade. The odds are overwhelmingly in Couture’s favour (-400 to Coleman’s +300), and it would be most unlikely that Couture didn’t win, at least by UD. Just looking at Coleman’s gait as he ran for the UFC promo, it seems obvious his knees and shins are in bad shape. Unless his cardio improved so much you’d think the fight actually took place in 1998 (then discussed for the first time), Coleman will be defeated, and it wouldn’t be surprising that Couture did it on the ground, to make a point about Coleman’s wrestling. Or just because he can. Subs former Gillette spokesman in the second round, if he doesn’t knock him out in the first.

The bout offering the highest ranked fighters will feature #2 MW Nate Marquardt fighting #6 Chael Sonnen. Though on paper it looks like a close match, Marquardt’s incredible strength, cardio and wrestling will prove unstoppable for Sonnen. Sonnen’s skills are very good, but Marquardt’s are that much better. Lines are rightfully heavily favouring Marquardt (-450) over Sonnen (+325). Although Sonnen would like nothing more than chip away at his opponent for three rounds, Marquardt will either test his jaw decisively late in the first round or submit him in the third. It shouldn’t go to a decision.

Other top ten fighters featured on the main card will be #6 WW Paulo Thiago pitted against #7 Mike Swick. Thiago’s great grappling (black belt BJJ) and judo skills (black belt) will destabilize Swick’s striking attempts. Never forgetting Thiago has been hit by harder strikers than Swick in the past (Fitch). Swick’s strategy will be simple, that of avoiding going on the ground, which always puts someone at an immediate disadvantage. Lines on this are puzzling, Swick (-220) a solid favourite to Thiago (+175). Odds are that were Swick to lose this fight, he would likely drop out of the top ten in his division.

Middleweight Brazilian BJJ superstar Damian Maia (#4) will face Dan Miller in the other lopsided MW bout featured on the main card. Two black belt BJJ guys. An ego match for Miller, and a chance to get back on the proverbial horse for Maia, who thankfully didn’t lose his ability to read nor sit up straight after suffering a devastating standing KO to Marquardt, clocking in less than 30 seconds after the opening bell. So, which black belt is darker? French contemporary painter Pierre Soulages refers to this colour as “outrenoir”. The colour found on Maia’s belt (-400). Unless Miller (+300) rocks Maia (it has happened) to the point he forgets his ground wizardry, the lighter shade of black gets subbed before the third round.

The main card bookend will suitably feature two over-the-hill fighters, as WW Matt Serra faces off against Frank Trigg. Serra has dropped off the map since losing to St-Pierre and Hughes. He puts on a show once a year, and this year’s grand Serra cru is Trigg. Trigg, on the other and unexpected hand, signed a four-fight deal with the UFC not so long ago. His initial bout turned out to be a very bad outing, beaten silly early in the first round by Koscheck. Serra (-140) seems more within his reach, though Trigg (+110) remains the slight underdog in the fight. Trigg will spar, but Serra will be more accurate. Serra’s ground will prove to be good enough early in the engagement to keep this a stand up affair for the majority of the three rounds. Serra wins by decision.

Lines from Betus.com

Pictures from Sherdog.com (D. Mandel)