UFC 115 – Franklin vs. Liddell; going big or heading home

Dana White & Co. couldn’t have scripted a better scenario for their Vancouver debut. A headlining match that features two of the most celebrated UFC fighters in its short history combined with its fastest sellout. The quality of the product featured for the main event surely helps to explain the lightning fast sellout, as two former champions colliding in the Octagon rarely make for a boring evening.  

For Rich Franklin, headlining for UFC 115 constitutes nothing less than payback. The former UFC MW champion (26-5-1) will be consolidating his return in the promotion’s LHW division after two consecutive bouts fought at a catchweight of 195lbs.

Following his outing against Vitor Belfort at UFC 103, Franklin expressed some frustration at the promotion, qualified by his usual politeness. He felt the promotion had fed him to fighters who were on their way to the MW division to resurrect their past glory, as both Wanderlei Silva and Belfort had announced their decision to fight at 185lbs.

Hence, after being a loyal company man, he felt it was time to give him his just desserts and let him show his wares against a top UFC LHW draw. Enter Chuck Liddell and his rebirth.

Once described as “The Most Feared Man on Earth”, or some other hyperbole, Liddell’s last performances prompted his friend and UFC President, Dana White, to give him a mandatory time-out. For those who witnessed his last two quick (T)KO losses to Rashad Evans and Mauricio Rua at UFC 88 and 97 respectively, it was made apparent that Liddell had timing issues that needed to be resolved, as pulling punches proved fatal for the San Luis Obispo native.

Thus, White inducted Liddell (21-7) into the promotion’s Hall of Fame with the celerity usually given to the terminally ill. Then Liddell was nudged into strategizing about typical ‘post-career’ moves. A stint on “Dancing with the Stars” would effectively diversify his fan base, giving the impression the ‘Iceman’ was really being forced out of the promotion by his friend who preferred not having to witness his seemingly inevitable decay as a fighter. But whether the elderly would enthusiastically buy soap from this man remained a gnawing question that Liddell’s handlers couldn’t answer with assurance.

In early 2010, Liddell decided to postpone his retirement plans and headed back to the Octagon. That route had him renew with a coaching job on the TUF series, which he had done back in 2005 for the inaugural season.

As the formula of the reality TV show goes, the head coaches from opposite teams eventually settle their score in the Octagon. Originally slated to face Tito Ortiz, who ended pulling out of that engagement due to an injury whose timing should be used to set the pace on an atomic clock, Rich Franklin was ultimately given the nod as Ortiz’ replacement. And Franklin would also get to capitalize on the huge exposure associated with Liddell’s comeback spotlight.

The fight should be exciting as both have a lot to lose. Franklin needs to show he can win against real contenders at 205lbs, and Liddell must prove to MMA fans, never mind the promotion itself, that he still belongs in the Octagon. Will he be able to pull a ‘Couture’ out of his bag and make a successful comeback as a practicing MMA hall of famer?

That question mainly hinges on the timing he will display in the Octagon. Ever since Liddell’s TKO loss to Rampage Jackson at UFC 71, his counterpunching has been hesitant. Once amazing at finding his opponents’ chins with laser-like accuracy when countering their punches, Liddell’s ability to let his hands go seems to have diminished due to his waning confidence.

His rival clearly presents a more complete fighting pedigree. Initially, look for Franklin to chip at Liddell’s power with incessant leg kicks. If successful, and depending on whether Franklin feels brave enough to upstage Liddell by attempting a KO or TKO finish, he might stand and spar with more ease. If that doesn’t prove effective, he will shoot for takedowns, following with ground and pound.

Either way, Franklin should prevail. His skill set is more developed and he’s more of a tactician than Liddell will ever be.  Look for a UD that will put him in contention for a title shot in the near future. Lines have Franklin entering the Octagon a slight favourite (- 125) against Liddell (-105).

The lead-up to the main event will have two HW kickboxing masters face each other for a real barn burner. Patrick Barry (5-1) will demonstrate why speed matters against an aging MMA glory, Mirko Filipovic (26-7-1). Barry is the favourite (-175) against the Pride legend (+145). Physics will play a huge part in the outcome of this match. Barry’s low leg kick will prove (see picture) that once a striker’s power is stripped from him (i.e. his legs), his only option remains to limp off the Octagon. Potential contender for KO of the Night award.   

A defeat by ‘Cro Cop’ might put an end to his career. MMA fans hope he won’t have sinister thoughts cross his mind (see post-JDS fight interviews) when Barry puts him out of commission as early as the 2^nd round.

The rest of the main card looks as follows:

WW bout opposing  Paulo Thigo (13-1 and -260) to vs. Martin Kampmann (16-3 and +200): Thiago by UD

HW bout between Ben Rothwell (30-7 and -165) vs. Gilbert Yvel (36-14-1 and +135): Yvel by TKO in the 3^rd.

WW bout between two young wolves, Carlos Condit (24-5 and +115) vs. Rory MacDonald (10-0 and -145): Condit by UD. Contender for that card’s Fight of the Night award, with Barry vs. Filipovic.

Lines by Betus.com

Photos by UFC (Zuffa LLC) and Dave Mandel from Sherdog.com

Post 104 analysis (part II) – or how guys might get resigned and others dumped from the big show

 

The much anticipated HW bout opposing Pat Barry to Antoni Hardonk did not disappoint, as it was impressive and surprising. Hardonk showed early preference for kicks while Barry’s short reach didn’t deter him from attempting to land with vicious power every punch thrown. In the second round, though encumbered by a swollen eye due to a poke, he took Hardonk’s measure and landed at will until he finished him on the mat, with a huge and undefended right hand to the face. Hardonk rolled over from the pain and the referee called it to an end. Hardonk was expected to turn in a much better performance. He appeared much slower than his opponent. As for Barry’s fists, they were quick, laser sharp and very potent. He proved willing to take kicks to be able to land punches. The big question here is who will the UFC management match him up against for his next outing. Unless he learns ground skills, interesting fights from him will unfortunately be rare. But in K-1, he’s a real contender. Just saw a K -1 clip of him against Gary Goodridge from 2007. Goodridge being a can notwithstanding, Barry dented his legs quite a bit. And quickly. Salaries for that affair were $14,000, including a $7,000 win bonus for Pat Barry, whereas Hardonk got $16,000. Suspensions were 180 days for Barry without contact, for possible left wrist fracture due to hitting Hardonk’s head without reserve and 45 days for Hardonk, of which 30 days without contact, for precautionary reasons. The clip from 2007 had Hardonk AND Hoost in his corner to face Goodridge, correcting a previous post (re: UFC 104 predictions) that turned erroneous about Barry not having been supported by Hoost before.

The LHW Bader v. Schafer fight was odd in its pace, as Bader dominated early on with strikes and then seemed to gas out in the second round, before regaining energy and giving a last effort to seal the deal for a UD. Though Schafer appeared to spar comfortably, he never really landed. As for his ground game, apart from a one attempt, was almost entirely defensive. Too bad. Bader netted $30,000 for the bout, including a $15,000 win bonus, whereas Schafer got $13,000. Schafer was suspended 60 days without contact for nose laceration.

Joe Stevenson gave a good performance against Spencer Fisher, for what turned out to be the only LW bout on the card, as the other one between Tibau and Neer moved to catchweight (157).  Stevenson was the heavy favourite going in, though 2 of 3 Sherdog staff gave the first to Fisher. Then in the second round, Stevenson grabbed a foot that Fisher threw his way before pulling him down on the mat where he served Fisher an overwhelming helping of elbows. Ended in the 2nd by stoppage. ‘Big Daddy’ looked a lot more toned than he did in previous bouts. He didn’t complain about cutting and maintaining weight this time, so it might not be a stretch to surmise, among other things, that he picked up a book about nutrition and gave it a good read. Following the bout, Fisher was suspended 60 days without contact for right eye laceration.  He earned every penny of his $26,000 paycheck. Stevenson received $94,000 that includes a $47,000 win bonus.

Catchweight opponents Gleison Tibau and Josh Neer turned in a tough match that favoured Tibau in the end, earning a UD. Neer unfortunately never appeared to be able to dominate and was taken and/or slammed down at will by the BRA grappler. Tibau earned $38,000 which includes a $19,000 win bonus, while Neer fought for $14,000. Disappointing for Neer, as this might mean the end for him in the UFC.

The other fight that saw its label change due to weight pitted Anthony Johnson to Yoshiyuki Yoshida. The WW turned catchweight (176!!) confirmed Johnson’s insane punching power. This one lasted 41 seconds. Johnson’s $30,000 purse (including a $15,000 win bonus) was docked 20% for not coming close to making the mandatory 171 lbs weight requirement. Yoshiyuki Yoshida’s $12,000 paycheck will go entirely to his second recovery from a devastating KO (read concussion) in less than a year (the first, courtesy of Josh Koschek). The official version (post fight doctors) claims he will be suspended 45 days, 30 days of which without contact, for precautionary reasons. Still, that doesn’t appear to be enough time for Yoshida to learn how to make a sustainable livelihood in MMA. The same might be said about Johnson’s insistence to cut around 50 lbs to make weight (and fail at that) to fight as WW. That can’t be sustainable either. Following this second ‘piñata’ performance, it will be interesting to see if the UFC extends Yoshida’s contract once it runs its course. Fear not, he will easily shine in other promotions.

Continuing with that theme, Struve’s submission victory in the 1st round over Chase Gormley (triangle choke) made it to air. Though on the undercard, his impressive performance might secure a contract extension. He has amazing talent, but needs to develop strength. He is 21. He has just fought his 21st bout, and won for the 18th time, of that 17 times before the bell. He earned $14,000, including a $7,000 win bonus, whereas Gormley fought for $10,000.

The rest of the evening went like this:

Chael Sonnen: ($54,000 includes $27,000 win bonus) def. Yushin Okami: ($18,000) Not a surprise if once his contract is up, Okami doesn’t get resigned.

Jorge Rivera: ($36,000 includes $18,000 win bonus) def. Rob Kimmons: ($9,000)

Kyle Kingsbury: ($16,000 includes $8,000 win bonus) def. Razak Al-Hassan: ($3,000)

UFC 104 preview and predictions, part 2

The main event will feature LH champion Lyoto Machida for his first title defense against Mauricio Rua. Machida needs to be considered a heavy favorite. His awkward timing affords both great striking ability and a spectacular talent to dodge everything thrown his way. Look up his stats and you’ll be amazed at his ability to leave the Octagon unscathed. Onto the match itself. Rua’s cardio remains to be tested against a worthy opponent and his ground game is better on paper. That will become handy when Machida gets tripped up since Shogun will try to avoid a stand up bout. Machida should dominate for about 1 round before Shogun’s pride becomes a second thought for the fighter as he shoots decisively and gets to try Machida on the ground. The fight may stay there for some time, but it gets back up before the round ends and Shogun’s cardio already starts to show signs of weakness. Third round Machida TKOs Rua. Lines are Machida -450 Rua +325 as of Oct. 16 on betus.com

Spike will air live the LHW bout between Bader and Schafer. It will offer an incredible opportunity for betting, as lines have this one at Bader -500 Schafer + 350. Apparently bookmakers believe that Bader will tag Schafer at will. That’s a lot of hype for the TUF winner. Most of it will remain standing up, as Bader wants to reassure everyone in the UFC that he can become the potential contender that he’s rumored to be and put a decisive beating on Schafer. The latter will want to meet that challenge until he feels like he’s taken the wrong turn at the fork on the road and softens Bader on the ground. Schafer TKOs him in the third.

Another one to air on Spike is the HW Hardonk vs. Barry fight. It will pit two lumberjacks, locking axes as they’ll be attempting to prove who among them has the most powerful leg strikes. Very close odds, Barry -105 Hardonk -125. Fighters’ pride (and, indirectly, for Barry’s security, as he has no ground game to speak of. None) will make for a tacit agreement to keep this strictly a stand up show. In a kickboxing bind like this one, we should revert to the basics: any of these fellows Dutch? If so, they have an edge. And if they have trained with Ernesto Hoost, they should be seen as clearly having an edge. Hardonk wins a decision and both request wheelchairs to exit the Octagon.

On the preliminary card, the MW Okami vs. Sonnen affair will be very important for Okami. Just about every MMA fan worth their salt knows about this guy’s technical abilities and that unfortunately famous A. Silva up kick that KO’ed him. He’s a top ten fighter in several respectable rankings, but remains unable to finish fights and/or make them appealing to all viewers. He has to deliver. Sonnen is a tough guy. Okami will meet strong opposition on the ground, but Sonnen will get tagged and eventually be TKO’ed in the 2nd. Hoping for a rebirth. Okami wins, no matter what.

MW bout between Rivera and Kimmons will see Rivera winning by TKO in the 3^rd. No lines available.

LHW bout between Kyle Kingsbury and Razak Al-Hassan should be intense as both guys have lost in their respective UFC debut. Most likely they signed for three fights… so that one is the first of two other opportunities to remain within the organization for both fighters. Both have about the same amount of experience… the coin says Kingsbury by UD.

Lastly, the HW fight pitting Stefan Struve to Chase Gormley will also be intense as Gormley wants to make a big first impression and Struve wants to be successfully booked on the televised side of the card for his winning abilities. The latter might also be at the end of his three-fight contract term with the UFC, so I expect him to want to pull a spectacular win by submission. Since that what he does best. In the 2^nd.

It will be interesting to see the amount of ppv purchases for this one.