UFC 127 odds: good buys for Fitch and Rivera

Saturday’s UFC 127 main card provides two good opportunities for those inclined to wager, or accept beer as payment for picking winners. Both the headlining WW clash pitting BJ Penn to John Fitch and its lead –up MW bout opposing Michael Bisping to Jorge Rivera offer interesting returns for the risk incurred. 

To begin with the blue chip purchase, the WW-fight-that-looks-like-a-top-contender-fight-but-that-isn’t-oh-wait-it-might-be between Penn (16-7) and Fitch (23-3). Fitch will enter the Octagon the favourite (-210) against the Hawaiian prodigy (+165). Lines for the former LW champion have slightly receded in the past 24 hours, stabilizing at +160 for a while before yesterday’s move to 165.

Fitch’s specs are well known, possessing an impressive wrestling base, paralleled by his work ethic and conditioning. He’s also an improving boxer. He’s fought everybody in the division and triumphed, with the exception of his loss to GSP. When he triumphed, he did so with amazing regularity by way of decision, earning his nickname “The Decision” and that record (10) in the UFC along the way.

His reputation aside, he manages to win with a measure similar to that of a metronome. Fitch’s unrelenting style should see Penn pushed to his limit, the wrestler using his weight advantage to suffocate his opponent, as GSP did against Penn two years ago at UFC 94. Even though he’ll enjoy a 4-inch reach advantage over his rival, Fitch’s boxing is nowhere near Penn’s. Fitch’s game plan will consist in taking down the notoriously nimble Hawaiian, dodging Penn’s knees as he attempts to wear him down.

Penn’s recent consecutive losses to Frankie Edgar shouldn’t indicate he’s emulating Fedor and exiting MMA’s main stage. Penn arguably still possesses the best boxing talent in MMA, his takedown defense is excellent and his BJJ is remarkable. A lot of hyperbole still surrounds the former champ.

On the other hand, his determination, mirroring his conditioning, is inconsistent. In addition, Penn will be walking into the cage conceding about 13 pounds to his opponent. Knowing his opponent’s fighting pace and style, Penn should have a difficult time trying to keep the tussle a striking affair. To state the obvious, constantly defending takedown attempts is exhausting. Hence, this match-up doesn’t appear to be the most suited for his style. Fitch is thus expected to extend his winning streak and earn a telegraphed unanimous decision over Penn. At -210, Fitch is a real bargain against Penn.

Fitch’s recent foray into social media, coinciding around the same time Dana White stated the perpetual WW contender had a hard time connecting with fans, should enable him to manage his delicate brand. Look for him to redouble his efforts to explain this 11^th variation on the same theme in the days following the Australian event.

The other favourable wager on the main card pits MW comeback-kid Jorge Rivera (18-7) to Michael Bisping (20-3). The Brit is the heavy favourite (-375) against Rivera (+275), though the one-sided support is difficult to fully understand.

Rivera’s skillset isn’t the most elaborate on paper. He uses his right hand very effectively, has improved his conditioning and possesses a decent clinch game. His BJJ enables him to offer offense when on his back. The fact remains, he prefers to brawl and reacts well to charging opponents.

One thing that is frequently overlooked is that he has fought a who’s who of MMA, including Martin Kampmann, Anderson Silva and Rich Franklin. Thus, Rivera has seen better opposition than Bisping in the past.

Among Bisping’s advantages can be counted his improved striking power and footwork, specifically since the Dan Henderson debacle at UFC 100 in July 2009. His conditioning is also constant and he’s effective at neutralizing his opponents on the ground. He has no real offensive grappling ability to speak of, similar to his other prominent Wolfslair colleagues, namely Quinton Jackson and Cheik Congo.

Lines on this one offer a bigger return seemingly due to the fact odd makers have forgotten about Rivera’s experience. His style should prove difficult for Bisping to counter, as he’ll push forward and attempt to derail Bisping’s game plan, consisting of keeping a safe distance from the Boston brawler’s striking range. Odds that Rivera wins a unanimous decision shouldn’t be that undervalued at any rate.

Though guaranteeing a win for Rivera is not advisable, MMA fans should unquestionably nominate his trash-talking leading to the clash in the “best smack uttered” category for 2011.

Lines by Betus.com

Pictures courtesy of Sherdog.com (2nd by Daniel Herbertson)

UFC 114; Rampage and Evans settle their score

Hailed as the biggest grudge match in the promotion’s history, the duel opposing former UFC LHW champion Quentin Jackson to another former champ, Rashad Evans, is expected to draw large audiences. As to whether it will deliver an exciting battle, the promotion’s marketing campaign can’t be as categorical as it is with its hype.

The fight itself opposes two fighters with different skill sets. Nowadays, Rampage Jackson (30-7) relies almost exclusively on his incredible KO power from both hands. Back in his Pride years, Jackson seemed more willing to diversify his palate. It makes him quite predictable, though his Herculean power always prevents his opponents from taking him lightly.

Since his arrival in the UFC early in 2007, Jackson has stopped half his battles early with his fists. And the fact that he has chomped down such fighters as Wanderlei Silva and Chuck Liddell isn’t to be overlooked either. Jackson will be entering the cage valued at -115, the same as his opponent.

Rashad Evans (14-1-1) has power, but nothing that compares to Jackson’s. His spectacular KO of Chuck Liddell at UFC 88 constituted more a classic demonstration of the potency of a precise hit to the jaw than an illustration of his power. His real assets remain his wrestling abilities and his conditioning.

His last outing against Thiago Silva marked an official return to his wrestling pedigree. Takedowns galore, positioning, etc. Unfortunately, Evans never capitalized on those many opportunities and his frustration grew as the fight progressed. Silva’s heavy hands seemed to scare off Evans during the last half of the 3-round bout, but Evans’ relentless efforts at takedowns during the first 7 minutes of the 15 min. fight sufficed to earn him a UD win.

Following his devastating championship loss to Lyoto Machida a year ago, Evans seems to have pressed the ‘reset’ button. Once an NCAA Division I wrestler, and with the capable support offered by his training camp, Greg Jackson’s Submission Fighting in New Mexico, Sugar Evans appears to have gone back to basics and focuses on his natural assets instead on relying on his striker’s ambitions, as he had during the Liddell, Griffin and Machida fights.

Why is Evans’ recent fight history so important when predicting the outcome of the Evans-Jackson battle? Because Rampage Jackson’s learning curve is notoriously flat and modern MMA has evolved into an interdisciplinary era, something that Jackson’s camp, UK’s Wolfslair, hasn’t grasped yet. Jackson will inevitably have trained for takedowns, but defending against those will drain Jackson’s conditioning, another element of his arsenal that could stand to be improved.

Look for Evans to shoot early and to kick Rampage’s legs in order to neutralize his power. The fact that Rampage can’t be bothered to check kicks will cost him dearly. Evans will look to squeeze every ounce of that strategic edge against the UFC’s best known brawler. It should prove successful enough to earn him a UD win.

The lead-up fight to the main event will feature MW Michael Bisping (18-3) taking on a substantial opponent in Dan Miller (11-3-1). Odds have Bisping entering the Octagon as the favourite (-180) against Miller (+150). To make a long story short, Bisping’s improving ground game will get tested like never before against Miller, an accomplished BJJ artist with decent conditioning abilities. Look for Miller to pull the upset and win by TKO in the 3^rd. That fight could also provide enough intensity to get awarded the Fight of the Night purse.

The HW bout opposing Todd Duffee (6-0) to Mike Russow (12-1-1) presents a traditional match-up between a young and promising striker (Duffee) to a seasoned wrestler with good BJJ skills. Duffee is the overwhelming favourite (-375) to win against the Chicago police officer (+275), but lines for this fight seem overly hyped due to Duffee’s lightning fast KO win over Tim Hague back at UFC 102. Russow will put pressure early, forcing Duffee to focus on fending off relentless takedown attempts. It might be enough to throw him off his game. Russow by UD, providing the biggest surprise of the night.

The LHW fight between Antônio Rogério Nogueira (18-3) and Jason Brilz (18-2-1) doesn’t appear to be toughest to predict on paper. Lil’ Nog is the overwhelming favourite (-600) against Forrest Griffin’s replacement (+400). Lil’ Nog will give a great boxing clinic and should finish his opponent in the 1^st round by TKO. 

Last but not least, Diego Sanchez’ return to the WW division against John Hathaway should place among the night’s top fights. Sanchez (21-3) will wish to avenge his humbling defeat to then LW champ, BJ Penn, back at UFC 107. The outcome of that fight should make it plain to UFC matchmakers that Hathaway’s record of 12-0 needs to be put into context, as wins over Paul Taylor, Rick Story and Thomas Egan won’t have prepared the Englishman for his bout against a well-rounded adversary like Sanchez. Lines for that fight favour Sanchez (-220) over Hathaway (+175). Sanchez by TKO in the 3^rd.

Lines from Betus.com as of May 29, 2010

Photos from Sherdog.com and Susumu Nagao’s gallery.

UFC 110 recap; Velasquez and Sotiropoulos make statements

The Sydney UFC event gala promised excitement and delivered, as three of five main card fights ended before their allotted time.

The main card opened with the HW fight opposing Mirko ‘CroCop’ Filipovic to Ben Rothwell’s replacement, BJJ expert and hometown favourite Anthony Perosh. Perosh, accepting to sub on 48-hour notice for an injured Rothwell, made no attempt to hide his strategy acted out through many awkward and slow takedowns, easily defended by CroCop.  The stand-up battle essentially consisted of an intense stalking clinic given by the Croatian. A bit surprisingly, the action on the ground was as one-sided as it was standing up, CroCop peppering Perosh with hammer fists and unanswered strikes. Toward the end of the second round, CroCop delivered a short elbow from Perosh’s guard position, opening a big gash that brought an end to the engagement by doctor stoppage.

The Croatian will feel better about this outing, but shouldn’t make more of it than it is. He beat a very average fighter. Much improvement needs to take place before he gets to seriously challenge a top-ten fighter in the UFC. Among priorities should count his conditioning, as Filipovic appeared winded early in the second round. Using his legendary leg kicks would also add to his offence and establish distance between himself and opponents. Developing minimal yet efficient takedown and ground defense should top that list too. It would seem appropriate that CroCop fight Rothwell for his next outing.

The LHW bout between TUF winner Ryan Bader and Keith Jardine offered a back-and-forth scrap that was fairly evenly split before Bader blitzed his opponent, throwing among things a flying knee to Jardine’s chest, halfway through round three. Jardine was ultimately TKO’ed by a left hook. Who’s next for Bader? Maybe Luis Arthur Cane who has yet been assigned his future opposition.

Two ground experts, George Sotiropoulos and Joe Stevenson, provided the most exciting fight of the night, earning an additional $50,000 for their efforts. Stevenson, a former top-ten ranked LW, met stubborn opposition early. Sotiropoulos pressed the action and out-matched his opponent on the ground, Stevenson’s professed home turf. The Aussie fighter passed Stevenson’s guard repeatedly, almost at will. While in the dominant position, Sotiropoulos threatened with several submissions, notably an interrupted anaconda choke that nearly ended Stevenson’s evening, had it not been for the bell marking the end of round two.  Any doubts as to the strength of Sotiropoulos were answered decisively, while his conditioning appeared on par with his previous outings.

Wanderlei Silva’s debut at 185 lbs in the UFC’s MW division was a great opportunity for him to vault himself into a lower weight division’s top rankings. Earning himself a unanimous decision over a fighter on the brink of cracking the top ten, such as Michael Bisping, is a good start. But gone are the days of the great Axe Murderer performances in Pride or his fight against Liddell for his UFC return. We’ll still all watch him fight Akiyama in June at UFC 115, if the rumours turn out to be true. Though Bisping lasted all three rounds, he clearly lost two. The UFC needs strong English representation in its ranks to keep its stronghold over the UK market. Neither Terry Etim, Paul Kelly nor Paul Taylor draw as much as Bisping. The two current exceptions are Paul Daley, in large part for his propensity to quickly bang his opponent’s gong, and Dan Hardy, due to his upcoming fight against WW champion George St-Pierre. Look for Bisping to be thrown a bone for his next outing.

The main event featured a young and fast kickboxer facing a sluggish veteran. And it all ended mid-way in the inaugural stanza with the veteran beaten silly. Needless to say, those sentences were neither self-evident to most MMA fans.

It doesn’t mean the young HW contender Cain Velasquez is big enough to stand confidently against bigger opponents like Carwin or Lesnar (he had close to 10 pounds on Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira), nor that his timing has improved tremendously while standing up since Noguiera appeared slow during the short bout. At least slower than during his fight against Randy Couture. Nevertheless, Velasquez will get a title shot by the end of this year. He will enjoy an additional $50,000 training towards that moment, the reported purse for the knock out of the night award. As for Nogueira, this might mean the beginning of the end, though he undoubtedly has many good fights to offer for some time to come.

Photos by Daniel Herbertson, Sherdog.com

Crystal-ball gazing for 110; CroCop will face Perosh instead of injured Rothwell

The UFC’s foray down under presents many interesting match-ups on the main card, though few with significant impact on MMA rankings. Nonetheless, what 110 lacks in terms of excellence will be compensated by the intensity offered of those seeking redemption. And there are many holding that ticket scheduled to appear before the sold-out 21,000 Acer Arena crowd in Sydney.

Beginning with the first bout scheduled to air on PPV, the HW bout opposing fallen Pride idol Mirko ‘Cro Cop’ Filipovic (25-7-2-1) to Anthony Perosh, one of three Aussie fighters (including prelims.) to appear at 110. Ben Rothwell was expected to face Cro Cop but pulled out due to an injury mere days before the event. Perosh (10-5) has fought in the UFC three-some years ago and lost both times. One of his two loses came to the hands of Jeff Monson, who’s not well know for his striking ability, but nonetheless managed to beat up the Aussie black belt BJJ fighter. Early press from Perosh has him stating he’ll choke out Cro Cop. Judging from Perosh’s record, he doesn’t fare well against fighters who punch and kick… Hopefully the Croatian kickboxer seizes that opportunity and gets back on track. He admitted to have felt suicidal in his hotel room after his loss to Dos Santos (a top ten HW fighter). On a lighter note, Perosh runs a martial arts academy with Elvis Sinosic, who oddly enough, was also scheduled to appear at 110 but pulled out due to an injury on Feb. 18. No lines were available on that last-minute affair as of posting time. Cro Cop, having trained for the possibility of a ground and pound fight against Rothwell, should feel free enough to let his kicks and fists go. For a change. Might get stopped as early as 2^nd round, Cro Cop TKO’ing the hometown son.

The LHW bout between Keith Jardine (15-6-1) and TUF winner Ryan Bader (10-0) should provide a lot of intensity from both opponents. Bader will look to avenge disappointing performances during his last two bouts, while Jardine wants to wipe the slate clean and start anew after suffering a speedy KO to Thiago Silva 6 months ago. Betting lines are bewildering, as Bader is considered a favourite (-160) without having fought anybody remotely within the same range as Jardine (+130) has for the last three years. That list includes Griffin, Vera, W. Silva, T. Silva, Rampage Jackson and Liddell. Bader should struggle early with Jardine’s strange timing and might look to take it to the ground in the second. Jardine will fight hard to keep it a stand-up affair and his stubbornness will pay off. Jardine by UD.

Next on the main card will be the LW bout opposing Joe Stevenson (31-10) to Aussie George Sotiropoulos (11-2). Sotiropoulos is on a tear since joining the UFC more than 2 years ago. A TUF veteran, he’s slowly made his way to getting around fighting the likes of Stevenson. This is a significant test for Sotiropoulos, as Stevenson is coming off a strong showing against grinder extraordinaire Spencer Fisher back in October and has fought some of the best fighters in his division. Stevenson (-240) is the favourite going into this fight against Sotiropoulos (+190). They’ll want to stand, but that battle going nowhere, both submission experts will attempt what they do best for the rest of the fight. Sotiropoulos by SD.                                                                

The lead-up bout to the main event, the MW fight opposing Wanderlei Silva (32-10-1-1) to Michael Bisping (20-2), should prove very entertaining. Silva wishing to remain a significant opponent in the UFC and an equally hungry Bisping wishing to crack the top ten rankings make for sufficient ingredients for a stand-up rumble. Silva (-155) is the favourite against Bisping (+125). This fight might provide the knock out of the night. And Silva might earn that purse in the 3^rd round.

The main event will feature two top HW ranked fighters at very different stages in their career. The up-and-coming Cain Velasquez (7-0) will face the greatest opposition he’s ever faced when he steps in the Octagon to battle Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (32-5-1-1), a long-time warrior who has fought the best for nearly ten years. Odd makers weren’t impressed by that fact, having Nogueira (-110) and Velasquez (-120) ever so close. Nogueira’s BJJ expertise will come in handy as he gets mauled and charged by Velasquez early. Experience will show, though Velasquez won’t have to blush about the loss incurred. UD goes to Nogueira.

Photos by Daniel Herbertson, Sherdog.com

Betting lines from Betus.com

Post-UFC 105 analysis; scoring, refereeing and its discontents

Although the 105^th event played out to a filled Manchester Evening Standard arena last night, the UFC’s 105 post-mortem will include two nagging issues that cast a shadow on yesterday’s card, underlining two recent areas of concern for the organization: scoring and refereeing.

Beginning with the first bout of the evening (undercard), LW UK fighter Andre Winner absolutely smashed Rolando Delgado with a devastating right hand that knocked him out on impact around mid-round 1. He received two unnecessary blows while out on the ground because of the distant position of the referee, who had previously circled out of the action to place himself behind Winner at the diametrical opposite location in the Octagon. The referee clearly saw the blow that KO’ed Delgado, but was so far away from the action that Winner was able to land two undefended punches to a motionless Delgado before the bout was brought to a halt. Only four months after Henderson’s double KO’ing of Bisping, the UFC should avoid such situations as they only serve its detractors and impede the sport’s growth. Of note, the UFC didn’t reward that KO with the traditional KO of the Night purse, as it chose to do so when Hendo KO’ed Bisping at UFC 100 ($100,000). Last night’s KOTN went to Siver’s TKO over fellow LW Paul Kelly in the 2^nd round ($40,000).

The main event that book-ended the evening saw the judges award a unanimous decision to UFC LHW Hall-of-Famer Randy Couture over Brandon Vera. Couture almost completely dictated the pace (minus devastating leg kicks, though too few, and a mount) by pressing Vera against the fence, effectively nullifying his striking advantage for the duration of the three-round engagement. Acknowledged by all who witnessed the fight, Vera inflicted more damage. The decision stunned the crowd, prompting Vera to leave the Octagon. After colour commentator Joe Rogan finished his post-decision interview with Couture, Vera came back to the Octagon and confessed being shocked by the scoring and added an ironic thank you addressed to the judges. Seconds earlier while talking to Couture, Rogan had admitted he had scored the bout in favour of Vera. Though Vera got the popular support, Couture benefited from playing out his game plan, attempting take-downs (defended by Vera) and dictating the pace, which made for a somewhat dull fight. But according to the ten-point must system rules used by the UFC, the decision was rightfully awarded to Couture. One area of improvement in the fight could have been the refereeing, as Couture received some latitude from the officiating ref. Marc Goddard for his clinching game that lead to naught.

The WW bout between Mike Swick and Dan Hardy provided an upset, as the favourite, Swick, was dominated by the Englishman through all three rounds. Though a non-title bout, it carried a lot of weight for Swick who was expected to win over Hardy and obtain a shot at the current WW champion, Georges St-Pierre. Hardy’s chin proved very resilient and his power impressive. UFC’s Dana White had already stated the winner of this bout might get a shot at the champ. The outcome should precipitate a fight between GSP and ‘The Outlaw’, but few give him a genuine chance at pulling a victory.                                                                                                                                                                                    

The other Englishman that had the crowd roaring was Michael Bisping, who decisively defeated by TKO (punches) his MW opponent Denis Kang for this non-title bout. Kang had stunned Bisping early in the first stanza, leading him to quickly keep him on the mat. Bisping’s active grappling frustrated all of Kang’s ground and pound attempts. When the second round began, Bisping charged his opponent and punched him twice to the ground, the second barrage of punches to the ailing Kang proved sufficient for an early stoppage (TKO). This bout earned fighters the Fight of the Night award and a $40,000 purse respectively.

The LW non-title fight opposing Ross Pearson to Aaron Riley also provided a spectacular upset, when the underdog Pearson TKO’ed the veteran Riley in round 2. Pearson quickly imposed his rhythm and landed big shots that rocked Riley early on. Riley wasn’t able to reverse this and was on the losing end of a brutal clinch game before the doctor called an end to it.

The rest of the card went like this:

Welterweight bout: James Wilks vs. Matt Brown. Brown defeated Wilks via TKO (punches) at 2:26 of Round 3.

Light Heavyweight bout between Alexander Gustafsson and Jared Hamman. Gustafsson defeated Hamman via KO (punches) at 0:41 of round 1.

Welterweight bout between Nick Osipczak and Matthew Riddle. Osipczak defeated Riddle via TKO (punches) at 3:53 of round 3.

Lightweight bout between Terry Etim and Shannon Gugerty. Etim defeated Gugerty via submission (guillotine choke) at 1:24 of round 2. Submission of the Night award ($40,000)

Welterweight bout between Paul Taylor and John Hathaway. Hathaway defeated Taylor via unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-26).

Photos by Dave Mandel, Sherdog.com

UFC 105 predictions and lines; Mancunians get a ‘thin’ card

On paper, the 105^th event assembled by the UFC has few fights that would enthrall enough MMA fans,  never mind the larger public, to purchase a PPV distribution. And only a week after having seen Emelianenko rock Rogers on network television, the UFC will have the event televised live from Manchester, England on Spike TV. Though scheduled since mid-July, the UFC is more than likely enthusiastic about a chance to expand its worldwide popularity and flood the MMA market with enough product (UFC 106 next week) to keep Strikeforce/M-1 Global and CBS at bay (though Fedor made it spectacular. Again).

The main event will feature Randy ‘The Natural’ Couture (16-10) fighting Brandon ‘The Truth’ Vera (11-3). Couture, coming off tough losses to reigning HW champion Brock Lesnar and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, will be fighting at LHW for the first time since his last tussle against Chuck Liddell, nearly four years ago at UFC 57. Couture has stated he expects Vera to wrestle him, while Vera credited “Mr. Couture” for giving him the toughest fight of his career. Last time such reverence was shown was before the fight opposing GSP and his ‘iconic’ rival, Matt Hughes for their first bout at UFC 50… A close fight between a wrestler that has solid boxing skills and a Muay Thai guy that possesses BJJ know-how. Betting lines stand at Couture -110 and Vera -120. If Couture presses the action enough to limit Vera’s ability to land leg kicks, fans will be treated to a boxing match that will eventually go on the ground, at Couture’s will. A tough match up that wouldn’t shock most if it went all three rounds. Vera by UD.

The WW bout opposing Mike Swick (14-2) to Dan Hardy (22-6-1) is crucial for Swick as a victory brings him back in the mix for a shot at the title against champion George St-Pierre. Hardy, fighting in front of his compatriots, will attempt to make it seven wins in a row in his MMA career. Lines are Swick -210 and Hardy +165. This will be Hardy’s biggest challenge to date and, unfortunately, will be the only fight featuring a top 10 fighter (Swick) on this otherwise thin Mancunian card. Swick’s rapid release should stun Hardy and if his chin proves tough enough, Swick might come to out grapple him. In the second.

Four months after suffering a crushing KO to Dan Henderson in Las Vegas, MW Michael Bisping (17-2) will seek redemption when he faces Denis Kang (32-11-2). The sound level will be deafening, as the national favourite Bisping will provide effective stand up against an opponent who isn’t a slouch at boxing, but will prefer to get a submission if it proves more accessible. Of note, the UFC Countdown to 105 vignette showcasing Bisping carefully excluded footage of the blow(s) that capped his last appearance in the Octagon. Bisping, hoping this fight becomes a boxing match, will be tested by one of his toughest opponents on the ground and get submitted in the 2nd round. The silence following the submission should be stunning. Betting lines for that one are Denis Kang -125 Michael Bisping -105.

The WW bout between TUF 9 champion James Wilks (6-2) and TUF 7 contestant Matt Brown (9-7) should have fans looking at their screen sideways, as both fighters propose a grappling pedigree. But, as it has been known to happen in previous MMA events where curricula seemed to determine a fight before the bell signaled the beginning of the bout, both might want to make a statement and exchange standing up… before resorting to their favourite tools on the ground. Lines for that bout are Brown -155 and Wilks +125, making Brown the slight favourite. Nevertheless, Wilks should edge his rival in the 2^nd by TKO.

Last fight scheduled to be televised pits TUF 9 LW winner Ross Pearson (9-3) to Aaron Riley (28-11-1). Riley -200 and his Muay Thai skills position him as the early favourite against his English opponent (+160). Riley should stop Pearson in the 3^rd round by TKO.

Preliminary card predictions at a glance

If the aboriginal character of the 105^th event wasn’t apparent enough on the main card, with three of the five bouts featuring either English or British fighters, the prelims won’t leave any doubt as to the UFC’s desire to promote local talent. Of the 6 prelim. bouts, 5 involve local British fighters, while the WW fight between Paul Taylor and John Hathaway will offer an exclusively insular confrontation between Brits. That one should have the undefeated Hathaway continue on his win streak and edge his rival by UD.

LW bout between Terry Etim and Shannon Gugerty will have Etim win by SUB in the 2^nd.

The WW bout opposing Nick Osipczak and Matthew Riddle should have the American Riddle win by UD after a grueling duel that will mostly take place on the ground.

LW fight between Paul Kelly and Dennis Siver will see Siver win a UD.

LHW bout between Alexander Gustafsson and Jared Hamman will feature two guys who are up front about their strategy and skill sets: they put people to sleep. Expect Hamman to put the Swede to sleep in the 1^st. Could make the televised broadcast.

Lastly, the LW fight opposing TUF US vs. UK veteran Andre Winner to Rolando Delgado will have the national favourite, Winner, edge out his rival in a UD.