UFC in 134 Rio; lines for the top three clashes

The UFC’s quest for international markets will bear fruit this weekend in Rio de Janeiro’s HSBC Arena when the promotion returns, arguably, to the sport’s birthplace.

Long time MMA fans will recall the UFC wedged an event between its 17^th and 18^th galas back in 1998, when the banner wasn’t under Zuffa ownership. In lieu of the various brands since developed by the promotional outfit for their VS or Spike offerings, the event came to be referred to as UFC 17.5. For late comers, they’ll get their bearings if they look up the awesome Belfort finish of Wanderlei Silva. That lightning bolt struck in Sao Paulo.

Media coverage and enthusiasm for the mid-sized event (15 000 seat capacity) reached new heights, surfing on the wave of popularity ensuing from Anderson Silva’s now famous front-kick-to-the-face finish over Belfort last February. UFC honchos witnessed firsthand the fever pitch when yesterday’s weigh-ins gathered more fans than most Fight Night shows.

And to add to the frenzy near the Copa, Yushin Okami’s training partner, Chael Sonnen, has recently taken a liking to talking smack about Brasil. Here’s one guy who won’t be taking a tour of the city’s favelas. Ever.

The top three clashes promise to deliver on the hype, two of those expected to afford the fireworks traditionally associated with rematches (Okami v. Silva and Rua v. Griffin).

Odds for the headlining event, featuring the MW champion Anderson Silva (30-4), are unsurprising as the Spider will enter the Octagon the overwhelming favourite (-500) against his Japanese rival (+350). Following Silva’s near-miss against a dominant wrestler such as Sonnen, it appears odds makers forgot about the lanky athlete’s difficulty to stuff takedowns from capable opponents. This could very well be the champion’s biggest test to date, to quote Yogi Bera who paraphrased the larger lady who ends up singing at the conclusion of all worthwhile ordeals. 

Okami (26-5) is a very technically sound fighter who has learned a great deal since losing to Sonnen nearly two years ago. His fights against feted wrestler Mark Munoz and the not-so-shabby Nate Marquardt showed how much potential Okami possesses.

At +350, Okami constitutes a good buying option. Look for him to close the gap on Silva almost as soon as the opening bell rings, relentlessly pushing the pace and looking for takedowns. There is no other strategy to defeat the best pound-for-pound fighter the sport has seen to date.

The HW bout pitting Brendan Schaub (8-1) to BRA legend, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (32-6-1-1), remains the only fight on the whole card where the BRA fighter isn’t favoured to win. Somewhat justifiably, after losing two decisive bouts to Mir and current HW champ, Cain Velasquez, Big Nog’s stock dropped. He will be entering the cage the underdog +190 against the recently rebranded “legend slayer” that has become Schaub (-240).

Though Nog’s boxing is better than most, his lack of power will be the determining factor in what will likely end in a TKO or KO climax midway through the bout. Watch for a rare silent moment on the card when the crowd favourite gets felled like a tree. Look for the legend’s chances to improve if the fight drags on.  This clash is a likely candidate for either KOTN or FOTN bonuses.

Lastly, LHW Mauricio Rua (19-5) will face Forrest Griffin (18-6) and attempt to eradicate from recent memory last March’s demolition derby-like loss suffered to current LHW champ Jon Jones. Rua will look to reassert his place among the division’s cream of the crop and avenge the loss that marred his UFC debut, against the same Griffin at UFC 76. Lines have him favoured (-230) against Griffin (+180). Unless Shogun isn’t fully healed from previous injuries, the likelihood of witnessing a UD by the BRA fighter is accurately represented in those odds.

Lines by Betus.com

Picture from Sherdog.com

UFC 110 recap; Velasquez and Sotiropoulos make statements

The Sydney UFC event gala promised excitement and delivered, as three of five main card fights ended before their allotted time.

The main card opened with the HW fight opposing Mirko ‘CroCop’ Filipovic to Ben Rothwell’s replacement, BJJ expert and hometown favourite Anthony Perosh. Perosh, accepting to sub on 48-hour notice for an injured Rothwell, made no attempt to hide his strategy acted out through many awkward and slow takedowns, easily defended by CroCop.  The stand-up battle essentially consisted of an intense stalking clinic given by the Croatian. A bit surprisingly, the action on the ground was as one-sided as it was standing up, CroCop peppering Perosh with hammer fists and unanswered strikes. Toward the end of the second round, CroCop delivered a short elbow from Perosh’s guard position, opening a big gash that brought an end to the engagement by doctor stoppage.

The Croatian will feel better about this outing, but shouldn’t make more of it than it is. He beat a very average fighter. Much improvement needs to take place before he gets to seriously challenge a top-ten fighter in the UFC. Among priorities should count his conditioning, as Filipovic appeared winded early in the second round. Using his legendary leg kicks would also add to his offence and establish distance between himself and opponents. Developing minimal yet efficient takedown and ground defense should top that list too. It would seem appropriate that CroCop fight Rothwell for his next outing.

The LHW bout between TUF winner Ryan Bader and Keith Jardine offered a back-and-forth scrap that was fairly evenly split before Bader blitzed his opponent, throwing among things a flying knee to Jardine’s chest, halfway through round three. Jardine was ultimately TKO’ed by a left hook. Who’s next for Bader? Maybe Luis Arthur Cane who has yet been assigned his future opposition.

Two ground experts, George Sotiropoulos and Joe Stevenson, provided the most exciting fight of the night, earning an additional $50,000 for their efforts. Stevenson, a former top-ten ranked LW, met stubborn opposition early. Sotiropoulos pressed the action and out-matched his opponent on the ground, Stevenson’s professed home turf. The Aussie fighter passed Stevenson’s guard repeatedly, almost at will. While in the dominant position, Sotiropoulos threatened with several submissions, notably an interrupted anaconda choke that nearly ended Stevenson’s evening, had it not been for the bell marking the end of round two.  Any doubts as to the strength of Sotiropoulos were answered decisively, while his conditioning appeared on par with his previous outings.

Wanderlei Silva’s debut at 185 lbs in the UFC’s MW division was a great opportunity for him to vault himself into a lower weight division’s top rankings. Earning himself a unanimous decision over a fighter on the brink of cracking the top ten, such as Michael Bisping, is a good start. But gone are the days of the great Axe Murderer performances in Pride or his fight against Liddell for his UFC return. We’ll still all watch him fight Akiyama in June at UFC 115, if the rumours turn out to be true. Though Bisping lasted all three rounds, he clearly lost two. The UFC needs strong English representation in its ranks to keep its stronghold over the UK market. Neither Terry Etim, Paul Kelly nor Paul Taylor draw as much as Bisping. The two current exceptions are Paul Daley, in large part for his propensity to quickly bang his opponent’s gong, and Dan Hardy, due to his upcoming fight against WW champion George St-Pierre. Look for Bisping to be thrown a bone for his next outing.

The main event featured a young and fast kickboxer facing a sluggish veteran. And it all ended mid-way in the inaugural stanza with the veteran beaten silly. Needless to say, those sentences were neither self-evident to most MMA fans.

It doesn’t mean the young HW contender Cain Velasquez is big enough to stand confidently against bigger opponents like Carwin or Lesnar (he had close to 10 pounds on Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira), nor that his timing has improved tremendously while standing up since Noguiera appeared slow during the short bout. At least slower than during his fight against Randy Couture. Nevertheless, Velasquez will get a title shot by the end of this year. He will enjoy an additional $50,000 training towards that moment, the reported purse for the knock out of the night award. As for Nogueira, this might mean the beginning of the end, though he undoubtedly has many good fights to offer for some time to come.

Photos by Daniel Herbertson, Sherdog.com

Crystal-ball gazing for 110; CroCop will face Perosh instead of injured Rothwell

The UFC’s foray down under presents many interesting match-ups on the main card, though few with significant impact on MMA rankings. Nonetheless, what 110 lacks in terms of excellence will be compensated by the intensity offered of those seeking redemption. And there are many holding that ticket scheduled to appear before the sold-out 21,000 Acer Arena crowd in Sydney.

Beginning with the first bout scheduled to air on PPV, the HW bout opposing fallen Pride idol Mirko ‘Cro Cop’ Filipovic (25-7-2-1) to Anthony Perosh, one of three Aussie fighters (including prelims.) to appear at 110. Ben Rothwell was expected to face Cro Cop but pulled out due to an injury mere days before the event. Perosh (10-5) has fought in the UFC three-some years ago and lost both times. One of his two loses came to the hands of Jeff Monson, who’s not well know for his striking ability, but nonetheless managed to beat up the Aussie black belt BJJ fighter. Early press from Perosh has him stating he’ll choke out Cro Cop. Judging from Perosh’s record, he doesn’t fare well against fighters who punch and kick… Hopefully the Croatian kickboxer seizes that opportunity and gets back on track. He admitted to have felt suicidal in his hotel room after his loss to Dos Santos (a top ten HW fighter). On a lighter note, Perosh runs a martial arts academy with Elvis Sinosic, who oddly enough, was also scheduled to appear at 110 but pulled out due to an injury on Feb. 18. No lines were available on that last-minute affair as of posting time. Cro Cop, having trained for the possibility of a ground and pound fight against Rothwell, should feel free enough to let his kicks and fists go. For a change. Might get stopped as early as 2^nd round, Cro Cop TKO’ing the hometown son.

The LHW bout between Keith Jardine (15-6-1) and TUF winner Ryan Bader (10-0) should provide a lot of intensity from both opponents. Bader will look to avenge disappointing performances during his last two bouts, while Jardine wants to wipe the slate clean and start anew after suffering a speedy KO to Thiago Silva 6 months ago. Betting lines are bewildering, as Bader is considered a favourite (-160) without having fought anybody remotely within the same range as Jardine (+130) has for the last three years. That list includes Griffin, Vera, W. Silva, T. Silva, Rampage Jackson and Liddell. Bader should struggle early with Jardine’s strange timing and might look to take it to the ground in the second. Jardine will fight hard to keep it a stand-up affair and his stubbornness will pay off. Jardine by UD.

Next on the main card will be the LW bout opposing Joe Stevenson (31-10) to Aussie George Sotiropoulos (11-2). Sotiropoulos is on a tear since joining the UFC more than 2 years ago. A TUF veteran, he’s slowly made his way to getting around fighting the likes of Stevenson. This is a significant test for Sotiropoulos, as Stevenson is coming off a strong showing against grinder extraordinaire Spencer Fisher back in October and has fought some of the best fighters in his division. Stevenson (-240) is the favourite going into this fight against Sotiropoulos (+190). They’ll want to stand, but that battle going nowhere, both submission experts will attempt what they do best for the rest of the fight. Sotiropoulos by SD.                                                                

The lead-up bout to the main event, the MW fight opposing Wanderlei Silva (32-10-1-1) to Michael Bisping (20-2), should prove very entertaining. Silva wishing to remain a significant opponent in the UFC and an equally hungry Bisping wishing to crack the top ten rankings make for sufficient ingredients for a stand-up rumble. Silva (-155) is the favourite against Bisping (+125). This fight might provide the knock out of the night. And Silva might earn that purse in the 3^rd round.

The main event will feature two top HW ranked fighters at very different stages in their career. The up-and-coming Cain Velasquez (7-0) will face the greatest opposition he’s ever faced when he steps in the Octagon to battle Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (32-5-1-1), a long-time warrior who has fought the best for nearly ten years. Odd makers weren’t impressed by that fact, having Nogueira (-110) and Velasquez (-120) ever so close. Nogueira’s BJJ expertise will come in handy as he gets mauled and charged by Velasquez early. Experience will show, though Velasquez won’t have to blush about the loss incurred. UD goes to Nogueira.

Photos by Daniel Herbertson, Sherdog.com

Betting lines from Betus.com