UFC in 134 Rio; lines for the top three clashes

The UFC’s quest for international markets will bear fruit this weekend in Rio de Janeiro’s HSBC Arena when the promotion returns, arguably, to the sport’s birthplace.

Long time MMA fans will recall the UFC wedged an event between its 17^th and 18^th galas back in 1998, when the banner wasn’t under Zuffa ownership. In lieu of the various brands since developed by the promotional outfit for their VS or Spike offerings, the event came to be referred to as UFC 17.5. For late comers, they’ll get their bearings if they look up the awesome Belfort finish of Wanderlei Silva. That lightning bolt struck in Sao Paulo.

Media coverage and enthusiasm for the mid-sized event (15 000 seat capacity) reached new heights, surfing on the wave of popularity ensuing from Anderson Silva’s now famous front-kick-to-the-face finish over Belfort last February. UFC honchos witnessed firsthand the fever pitch when yesterday’s weigh-ins gathered more fans than most Fight Night shows.

And to add to the frenzy near the Copa, Yushin Okami’s training partner, Chael Sonnen, has recently taken a liking to talking smack about Brasil. Here’s one guy who won’t be taking a tour of the city’s favelas. Ever.

The top three clashes promise to deliver on the hype, two of those expected to afford the fireworks traditionally associated with rematches (Okami v. Silva and Rua v. Griffin).

Odds for the headlining event, featuring the MW champion Anderson Silva (30-4), are unsurprising as the Spider will enter the Octagon the overwhelming favourite (-500) against his Japanese rival (+350). Following Silva’s near-miss against a dominant wrestler such as Sonnen, it appears odds makers forgot about the lanky athlete’s difficulty to stuff takedowns from capable opponents. This could very well be the champion’s biggest test to date, to quote Yogi Bera who paraphrased the larger lady who ends up singing at the conclusion of all worthwhile ordeals. 

Okami (26-5) is a very technically sound fighter who has learned a great deal since losing to Sonnen nearly two years ago. His fights against feted wrestler Mark Munoz and the not-so-shabby Nate Marquardt showed how much potential Okami possesses.

At +350, Okami constitutes a good buying option. Look for him to close the gap on Silva almost as soon as the opening bell rings, relentlessly pushing the pace and looking for takedowns. There is no other strategy to defeat the best pound-for-pound fighter the sport has seen to date.

The HW bout pitting Brendan Schaub (8-1) to BRA legend, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (32-6-1-1), remains the only fight on the whole card where the BRA fighter isn’t favoured to win. Somewhat justifiably, after losing two decisive bouts to Mir and current HW champ, Cain Velasquez, Big Nog’s stock dropped. He will be entering the cage the underdog +190 against the recently rebranded “legend slayer” that has become Schaub (-240).

Though Nog’s boxing is better than most, his lack of power will be the determining factor in what will likely end in a TKO or KO climax midway through the bout. Watch for a rare silent moment on the card when the crowd favourite gets felled like a tree. Look for the legend’s chances to improve if the fight drags on.  This clash is a likely candidate for either KOTN or FOTN bonuses.

Lastly, LHW Mauricio Rua (19-5) will face Forrest Griffin (18-6) and attempt to eradicate from recent memory last March’s demolition derby-like loss suffered to current LHW champ Jon Jones. Rua will look to reassert his place among the division’s cream of the crop and avenge the loss that marred his UFC debut, against the same Griffin at UFC 76. Lines have him favoured (-230) against Griffin (+180). Unless Shogun isn’t fully healed from previous injuries, the likelihood of witnessing a UD by the BRA fighter is accurately represented in those odds.

Lines by Betus.com

Picture from Sherdog.com

UFC 5 on Versus; discounted lines for Cerrone and Miller

Fans who have brought back all their empties and looking to invest the loot have a few opportunities on the upcoming UFC card offered on cable this Sunday night.

AMA Fight Club protégé, Jim Miller (20-2), will face Benson Henderson (13-2), with a probable #1 LW contender status on the line for Miller. His only two losses were delivered by the division’s current champion and #1 contender, Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard, who are scheduled for a rubber match at UFC 136 in October.

For his part, Henderson debuted at UFC 129 with a strong performance against a tough BJJ practitioner, Mark Bocek, resulting in a decisive UD win. Ante WEC/UFC merger, he successfully defeated the WEC’s top competition before losing his LW title to MMA’s 2010 darling, Anthony Pettis.

Miller is the favourite (-160) against Henderson (+130) in what promises to be a very entertaining scrap that could also earn both fighters additional money due to its FOTN potential. The last 48 hours have seen Henderson’s stock rise proportionately to Miller’s fall, Henderson wagers offered at +145 by mid-day Thurs. while sold Miller sold for -175.

Similar to what happened against Charles Oliveira at UFC 124, Miller seems to be snubbed by odds makers. Not to the same extent, as the BRA fighter stepped in the Octagon the favourite against Miller, who was then on an impressive five-win streak in the UFC, compared to Oliveira’s two.

Miller is consistently ranked in the top six in his weight class, while Henderson still needs one more win against a higher-ranked colleague (such as Miller) to enter the select top-10. While it is true that Henderson shows amazing competitiveness due to his remarkable grit and conditioning, his striking is in need of much improvement and when pitted against opponents with respectable take down and/or wrestling skills, he seems at a loss for answers.

Despite the fact he’s the favourite, the smallish advantage afforded to Miller allows for adequate returns for those inclined to pick the Jersey boy as the only wagering option for that card, and a better one for those developing parlays. A UD win by Miller looks very plausible.

The most advantageous odds afforded by the card are the ones offered for the LW bout featuring Donald Cerrone (15-3-1) and Charles Oliveira (14-1-1). The BRA fighter will be entering the Octagon the favourite (-135) against Cerrone (+105). Cerrone is a strong LW who has developed very effective BJJ offense and defense over at Jackson’s camp in New Mexico, something of an asset considering the quality of Oliveira’s jitz.

On paper, Cerrone appears skilled enough to counter Oliveira’s ground assault and strong enough to bring him down and make him carry his weight, exhausting the lanky Brazilian as he pushes the pace. It is possible this bout might resemble a BJJ clinic. Regardless of the form the fight will take, fans will witness an exciting clash with relative significance in terms of impact for the stacked UFC LW division. Look for a UD by Cerrone as the outcome of a gruelling tactical contest for positioning on the mat.

The headlining bout between MW Dan Hardy (23-9-1) and Chris Lytle (30-18-5) also offers good odds for the slight underdog (-110 for Hardy, -120 for Lytle), provided the fight remain a striking match. Lytle has inched his way to become the favourite in this fight, lines having them even at -130 until Thursday.

 Considering Lytle’s “all-in” ethos, this might be Hardy’s chance to get a HL finish under his belt and avenge his three-fight losing streak. Also, it just might keep him employed with the UFC, as dropping three fights in a row usually earns most fighters a pink slip from the promotion’s management.

Pictures courtesy of mmafighting.com

Lines by Betus.com

Post-133 musings on bonuses

Bonus. The word oozes abundance. Who gets awarded something extra and based on what.

Criteria can be found through the categories elaborated by the UFC, consisting of Fight of the Night, KO of the Night and Sub of the Night. Adding to the prestige of the award, the UFC’s decision process is very impressionistic as announcements typically signal the beginning of the post-event press conference, less than one hour after the main event winner has been named. Almost on par with Crufts’ traditional protocol, which bestows a ‘Best in Show’ purse at the famous international championship conformation show for dogs.

So, who are usually considered top dogs? Salary allocations would suggest main card fighters have a better chance to be awarded bonuses, based on ranking and/or genuine willingness to come to fight intensely every time, sometime recklessly. Yoshihiro Akiyama, Chris Leben and Wanderlei Silva have earned bonuses and allowed opponents to get rich at their expense. They might not be the best, but they show very well for the PPV cameras.

So, who struck it rich at 133? Headliners were awarded the $70,000 FOTN bonus, Tito Ortiz mostly fighting for relevance, while Rashad Evans showcased a new beta version. Ortiz, a top 15 LHW, put in a rare sustained offensive performance. Evans seemed openly irked and surprised by Ortiz’ valiant efforts, notably on the ground. Though the original marquee had advertised a LHW championship bout between the new champ Jon Jones and Evans, both Evans and Ortiz turned in spirited performances, treating fans to an exciting non-championship headliner along the way.

The KOTN purse went to MW Vitor Belfort for the blitz-like annihilation of Akiyama. Fans had witnessed his speed before, but the missile that hit Akiyama at 1:38 in the first round will find most certainly a choice home in the BRA fighter’s HL reel. The punch that landed on top of Akiyama’s forehead was so quick that his legs didn’t give way until he backed up a few steps, following through on his unsuccessful attempt to escape Belfort’s oncoming rush. The mauling that ensued sealed the deal to earn him the extra purse.

Illustrating adequately the impressionistic approach to the matter, Brian Ebersole was awarded the first and last “getting those horrifying shorts off TV as soon as possible” bonus by Dana White for defeating his WW rival Dennis Hallman. The veteran donned very, very tight Speedo-like trunks. A leaf would have barely covered more than what Hallman wore last Saturday evening.

That one-off award replaced the usual Submission of the Night award, as no fighter subbed their opponent for the whole card. The organization’s homophobic stance earned Ebersole an additional 70k. Fortunately for Hallman, the ‘story’ is growing at such a pace that the seasoned veteran admitted he’s considering selling the infamous trunks on Ebay to pad his retirement fund, compensating for the fact the attire didn’t leave much room for sponsors.

Lastly, thanks to Ben Fowlkes, this write-up was made considerably more arduous since the budding MMA pundit stole my idea for the angle on the Hallman bit. Damn you Ben and the easiness of doing video. We can’t all benefit from such looks…

Pics courtesy of Esther Lin, MMAfighting.com