UFC 106 post-fight analysis; a triumphant debut for Lil’ Nog, not so-great for Ortiz

Saturday’s UFC 106 LHW bout opposing Antonio Rogerio ‘Lil’ Nog’ Nogueira to Luiz Cane confirmed that the organization’s LHW division was superbly complemented with the recent signing of Lil’ Nog, as he TKO’ed then undefeated top ten prospect ‘Banha’ Cane within 1:58 of the first stanza.

Minotauro’s 205 lbs brother was initially backing away from Cane’s incessant pushing forward, until he started pushing back the action to the center of the Octagon and landed a solid straight left hand that rattled his opponent. Using his right hand to jab an opening into Cane’s guard, Lil’ Nog’s swift left hand continued to land successfully on Banha’s head until he threw a sweeping left hook that cut Cane’s legs right from underneath him. Nogueira followed him down and landed two unanswered shots that, thankfully, didn’t hit Cane with the most accuracy. According to Sherdog’s rankings available at post time, Nogueira’s next opponent, among top ten opponents that aren’t currently slated to fight and still in the fighting business, is either Forrest Griffin or Rich Franklin. The loser of the upcoming Evans v. Silva fight might also figure in the mix. Rogerio Nogueira earned $100,000, including a $30,000 win bonus, whereas Luiz Cane netted $19,000 for his effort.

The main event featured LHW Tito Ortiz fighting Forrest Griffin in a classic grudge match over their previous fight, where Ortiz edged Griffin in a split decision that the latter thought he had won, more than 3 and a half years ago at UFC 59. Fortune having its ways, Griffin turned in the performance to win a SD over Ortiz at 106. In the first of his 6-fight deal with the UFC, the Huntington Beach Bad Boy managed to secure a few takedowns but appeared gassed by the middle of the second stanza, following Griffin’s pace onward. Griffin’s kicks and boxing skills did the most visible damage, and he successfully pressed Ortiz to keep it a stand-up match for the third round. This fight can’t be considered Griffin’s best by a long shot, nor an exciting one. As mentioned previously, an intriguing next fight for Griffin might include a fight against Anderson’s Silva’s training partner, Lil’ Nog. Griffin might even push himself for the fight, still reeling as he is from being schooled and KO’ed by a 205 lbs Anderson Silva in the first round three months ago. Griffin received a victor’s purse of $250,000, which included a $150,000 win bonus, while Ortiz got $250,000.

It would be hard to imagine Griffin fully satisfied by this win, especially considering the medicinal effect it was destined to have, following the succinct beat down suffered at the hands of Silva. As for Ortiz, and based on what was seen against Griffin, his best fights are behind him. He was promptly booed by fans in the post-fight interview with UFC colour commentator Joe Rogan after offering health problems as a justification for his less than stellar performance. Were Griffin to fight Lil’ Nog, Ortiz’ next fight could be against Franklin.

The WW bout opposing TUF 7 winner Amir Sadollah to Phil Baroni was surprisingly long, as Sadollah outrageously dominated his opponent without being able to finish him. Baroni appeared winded at the end of the first stanza, continuing to get his legs and chin hit for what appeared to go on forever. Sadollah netted $30,000 that included a $15,000 win bonus, while Baroni’s ability to stand in as a human punching bag earned him $25,000.

The last minute addition to the main card, WW bout between Paula Thiago and Jacob Volkmann, proved to be a surprisingly hard fought contest between the heavy favourite Thiago and newcomer Volkmann. Thiago outboxed Volkmann and clinched him enough to knee him a few times early. With less than 30 seconds left to the first round, Thiago landed a solid right uppercut that rocked his opponent, before throwing a right elbow coupled with a left hook that KO’ed Volkmann, seconds before the bell. Thiago had the advantage in the second. The third engagement saw a true back and forth exchange on the ground and standing up, but the ground display by both, with a special mention for the newcomer, was impressive. Thiago earned the UD, and $16,000, including an $8,000 win bonus. Jacob Volkmann’s unexpected debut netted him $6,000.                           

Lastly, the fight leading up to the main event, a much hyped WW bout between Josh Koscheck and Anthony Johnson, showcased amazing speed and power from both fighters standing up, and a clear advantage to Koscheck on the ground. He triumphed over ‘Rumble’ by rear naked choke near the end of round two. Kos got $106,000 that includes a $53,000 win bonus, as well as two other purses each worth 70K for Fight of the Night and Submission of the Night, netting him a total of $246,000. For his part, Johnson received $17,000.

Photos by Dave Mandel from Sherdog.com

UFC 106 preview: at last a final card (II)

In addition to the televised UFC 106 PPV card, Spike TV will also get to broadcast two bouts, one between WW Ben Saunders and Marcus Davis, the other a MW fight between Kendall Grove and Jake Rosholt. Saunders, attempting to bounce back from his decisive TKO loss (2^nd round) to Mike Swick back in Germany at UFC 99, will get another shot at making an impression in the big show as he faces fellow fighter Davis, also coming off a hard fought SD loss to Dan Hardy at the same event. Saunders, of TUF 6 fame, is the underdog (+190) while Davis’ boxing skills have him the favourite (-240). It would be an understatement to mention that both fighters are motivated to put on a tough and, preferably, spectacular fight. With Saunders’ preference for a stand-up game and Davis’ boxing skills, the match might turn into a kick/boxing event. Were it to go to the mat, Davis should still prevail, before the end of the 2^nd by TKO.

The second fight on Spike will feature, Rosholt, a MW decorated wrestler with good hands and heralded as a potential contender, facing Grove, a tough Muay Thai and BJJ guy. Rosholt is the favourite here (-200), though far from overwhelming Grove (+160). Grove will try to leverage his long reach advantage, while Rosholt should be able to bring this match to the ground at will. Grove will need the best defensive guard he’s got, but should nonetheless lose a UD.    

The non-televised preliminary card will begin with a LW bout opposing two grapplers in George Sotiropoulos and Jason Dent. Both are on a four-win streak, the vast majority of those by submission. Sotiropoulos is a very heavy favourite (-600) against Dent (+400). Were Sotiropoulos to win by a submission (again), he will need to continue developing his skill set if he is to develop into a real UFC LW contender capable of facing the likes of BJ Penn and Kenny Florian.

The only other LW fight on the card will have veteran Caol Uno go against Fabricio Camoes. The two fighters have great experience and solid grappling skills. Camoes has a 2nd degree black belt BJJ under Royler Gracie, and Uno can boast about a strong repertoire of victories by submission and having been a runner-up in the submission wrestling world championships at ADCC (lost in the finals). The reason why Uno is a slight favourite (-170) against Camoes (+140) might reside in the fact that he has fought just about everybody from 135 to 155. Camoes, a recent acquisition from Strikeforce, will debut in the UFC and hopes to extend his seven-win streak. The BRA fighter might pull an upset and sub Uno, and judging by his record, it might come early.

The last bout on the prelim card not scheduled to be televised, though it could provide a HL, will have WW grappler Brock Larson (-550) face Brian Foster (+375). Foster will attempt to forget his lackluster debut in the UFC when he fell on the wrong side of an arm triangle choke in the 2^nd round against Rick Story at UFC 103. Larson’s impressive five-win streak was brought to a halt when he lost a UD to Mike Pierce back in September. The likelihood of a submission victory for Larson is high, not mentioning that Foster could land a few punches that could precipitate even more Larson’s decision to bring this to the mat and sub him. Either way, Foster should be on the losing end of this tussle.

Photos: Dave Mendel, Sherdog.com

UFC 106 preview; at last a final (main) card

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

After a brief excursion overseas no later than last week, the Ultimate Fighting Championship continues to push the pace for its competitors by returning to Las Vegas to showcase its 106th event. After multiple changes to the card originally announced on Sept. 14, including the one that forced currently ailing HW champion Brock Lesnar out of the Octagon for an indefinite period of time, match-ups and the resulting PPV schedule were confirmed only yesterday.

The main event will feature the return of Tito Ortiz, back from a year and a half long hiatus from the Octagon, facing former LHW champion Forrest Griffin. Whether that return coincides with the end of Ortiz’ exclusivity clause in his previous contract with the UFC (June 2009. Re-signed in July) or with UFC President Dana White and Ortiz’ recently mended relationship, MMA fans won’t mind as they should be treated to a good fight between two top athletes.

Ortiz, who claims to be in his best shape, has undergone back surgery about a year ago, stating having been bothered by that injury for over five years (the fight with Randy Couture). His last fight pitted him against Machida for a three round affair that saw Machida do enough to earn himself a unanimous decision. Though Ortiz is close to retirement and his skills have waned over his twelve years spent in the UFC, he still enjoys a large fan base and appeared the best short-notice ‘replacement’ for the scheduled main event, the indefinitely postponed HW Lesnar (illness) v. Carwin championship bout. Added to this, the fighter originally slated to face Ortiz at UFC 106, Mark Coleman, had to pull out of the engagement due to an injury. That prompted an exceedingly eager Forrest Griffin to leap at the chance to avoid an existential meltdown and do what comes naturally, fight.

Griffin’s logic is best summed up like this: the searing pain of having some memory of his last fight can only find relief through a huge physical expense that, he hopes, makes him forget that he exited the Octagon literally running, following his KO last summer to a LHW Anderson Silva. Of the many unexpected surprises that impacted the UFC 106 original card, the LHW Ortiz v. Griffin bout is a pleasant one. Betting lines on this fight stand at Ortiz +115 and Griffin -145, making Griffin a slight favourite. Impressive cardio from both fighters, so it won’t shock fans if the engagement goes three rounds. 

Unpacking another surprise, though this one disappointing, is the very late cancellation of the fight between Karo Parisyan (-110) and Dustin Hazelett (-120), due to Parisyan (undisclosed reasons). The UFC announced it would bump the WW undercard bout between Paulo Thiago and Jacob Volkmann but hasn’t added another fight to fill that cancellation. Two BJJ guys then filling up the PPV card, and it should prove a technical bout on the mat, at least on paper. It should nevertheless finish there, to the advantage of Thiago.

The second of three WW bouts scheduled on the main card will pit Amir Sadollah (-210) to another returning UFC veteran, Phil Baroni (+160). This bout constitutes the UFC’s offer to Sadollah to get back on track after his lackluster performance during his last appearance in the Octagon. Baroni has a solid set of hands, but his cardio, grappling, chin, etc. His last fight saw him be on the short end of a unanimous decision to Joe Riggs. It either allows Sadollah to stay on track and deliver on the promise he showed previously and/or Baroni gets a few more fights before a well earned retirement as he doesn’t pose a (serious) threat to the champion St-Pierre.

The third WW fight featured on the card will have Josh Koscheck (-110) face Anthony Johnson (-120) for what is expected to be an exciting stand up match. It would be surprising if Koscheck, an accomplished wrestler, brought this willingly to the ground. And there is enough of a buzz around ‘Rumble’ Johnson’s KO power that Koscheck will probably need to test him on that front to truly make a statement and put him back in contention for a title shot. Hopefully Johnson successfully reaches the 170lb mark, a standard he did not meet for his lightning quick last outing, KO’ing Yoshida in 41 seconds, weighing in at 176 for that one.

The LHW bout opposing Luiz Cane (+140) to Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (-170) should provide an exciting fight between two fighters that hone similar skills. Cane has Muay Thai and Kickboxing, and Lil’ Nog has really solid boxing. Both have excellent BJJ. UFC fans will finally get to see this much overdue addition. Nogueira is awarded a UD after an intense battle evenly distributed on the mat and standing up.

All betting lines refer to betus.com odds on Nov. 19th 2009. Photos from Sherdog.com

Post-UFC 105 analysis; scoring, refereeing and its discontents

Although the 105^th event played out to a filled Manchester Evening Standard arena last night, the UFC’s 105 post-mortem will include two nagging issues that cast a shadow on yesterday’s card, underlining two recent areas of concern for the organization: scoring and refereeing.

Beginning with the first bout of the evening (undercard), LW UK fighter Andre Winner absolutely smashed Rolando Delgado with a devastating right hand that knocked him out on impact around mid-round 1. He received two unnecessary blows while out on the ground because of the distant position of the referee, who had previously circled out of the action to place himself behind Winner at the diametrical opposite location in the Octagon. The referee clearly saw the blow that KO’ed Delgado, but was so far away from the action that Winner was able to land two undefended punches to a motionless Delgado before the bout was brought to a halt. Only four months after Henderson’s double KO’ing of Bisping, the UFC should avoid such situations as they only serve its detractors and impede the sport’s growth. Of note, the UFC didn’t reward that KO with the traditional KO of the Night purse, as it chose to do so when Hendo KO’ed Bisping at UFC 100 ($100,000). Last night’s KOTN went to Siver’s TKO over fellow LW Paul Kelly in the 2^nd round ($40,000).

The main event that book-ended the evening saw the judges award a unanimous decision to UFC LHW Hall-of-Famer Randy Couture over Brandon Vera. Couture almost completely dictated the pace (minus devastating leg kicks, though too few, and a mount) by pressing Vera against the fence, effectively nullifying his striking advantage for the duration of the three-round engagement. Acknowledged by all who witnessed the fight, Vera inflicted more damage. The decision stunned the crowd, prompting Vera to leave the Octagon. After colour commentator Joe Rogan finished his post-decision interview with Couture, Vera came back to the Octagon and confessed being shocked by the scoring and added an ironic thank you addressed to the judges. Seconds earlier while talking to Couture, Rogan had admitted he had scored the bout in favour of Vera. Though Vera got the popular support, Couture benefited from playing out his game plan, attempting take-downs (defended by Vera) and dictating the pace, which made for a somewhat dull fight. But according to the ten-point must system rules used by the UFC, the decision was rightfully awarded to Couture. One area of improvement in the fight could have been the refereeing, as Couture received some latitude from the officiating ref. Marc Goddard for his clinching game that lead to naught.

The WW bout between Mike Swick and Dan Hardy provided an upset, as the favourite, Swick, was dominated by the Englishman through all three rounds. Though a non-title bout, it carried a lot of weight for Swick who was expected to win over Hardy and obtain a shot at the current WW champion, Georges St-Pierre. Hardy’s chin proved very resilient and his power impressive. UFC’s Dana White had already stated the winner of this bout might get a shot at the champ. The outcome should precipitate a fight between GSP and ‘The Outlaw’, but few give him a genuine chance at pulling a victory.                                                                                                                                                                                    

The other Englishman that had the crowd roaring was Michael Bisping, who decisively defeated by TKO (punches) his MW opponent Denis Kang for this non-title bout. Kang had stunned Bisping early in the first stanza, leading him to quickly keep him on the mat. Bisping’s active grappling frustrated all of Kang’s ground and pound attempts. When the second round began, Bisping charged his opponent and punched him twice to the ground, the second barrage of punches to the ailing Kang proved sufficient for an early stoppage (TKO). This bout earned fighters the Fight of the Night award and a $40,000 purse respectively.

The LW non-title fight opposing Ross Pearson to Aaron Riley also provided a spectacular upset, when the underdog Pearson TKO’ed the veteran Riley in round 2. Pearson quickly imposed his rhythm and landed big shots that rocked Riley early on. Riley wasn’t able to reverse this and was on the losing end of a brutal clinch game before the doctor called an end to it.

The rest of the card went like this:

Welterweight bout: James Wilks vs. Matt Brown. Brown defeated Wilks via TKO (punches) at 2:26 of Round 3.

Light Heavyweight bout between Alexander Gustafsson and Jared Hamman. Gustafsson defeated Hamman via KO (punches) at 0:41 of round 1.

Welterweight bout between Nick Osipczak and Matthew Riddle. Osipczak defeated Riddle via TKO (punches) at 3:53 of round 3.

Lightweight bout between Terry Etim and Shannon Gugerty. Etim defeated Gugerty via submission (guillotine choke) at 1:24 of round 2. Submission of the Night award ($40,000)

Welterweight bout between Paul Taylor and John Hathaway. Hathaway defeated Taylor via unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-26).

Photos by Dave Mandel, Sherdog.com

UFC 105 predictions and lines; Mancunians get a ‘thin’ card

On paper, the 105^th event assembled by the UFC has few fights that would enthrall enough MMA fans,  never mind the larger public, to purchase a PPV distribution. And only a week after having seen Emelianenko rock Rogers on network television, the UFC will have the event televised live from Manchester, England on Spike TV. Though scheduled since mid-July, the UFC is more than likely enthusiastic about a chance to expand its worldwide popularity and flood the MMA market with enough product (UFC 106 next week) to keep Strikeforce/M-1 Global and CBS at bay (though Fedor made it spectacular. Again).

The main event will feature Randy ‘The Natural’ Couture (16-10) fighting Brandon ‘The Truth’ Vera (11-3). Couture, coming off tough losses to reigning HW champion Brock Lesnar and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, will be fighting at LHW for the first time since his last tussle against Chuck Liddell, nearly four years ago at UFC 57. Couture has stated he expects Vera to wrestle him, while Vera credited “Mr. Couture” for giving him the toughest fight of his career. Last time such reverence was shown was before the fight opposing GSP and his ‘iconic’ rival, Matt Hughes for their first bout at UFC 50… A close fight between a wrestler that has solid boxing skills and a Muay Thai guy that possesses BJJ know-how. Betting lines stand at Couture -110 and Vera -120. If Couture presses the action enough to limit Vera’s ability to land leg kicks, fans will be treated to a boxing match that will eventually go on the ground, at Couture’s will. A tough match up that wouldn’t shock most if it went all three rounds. Vera by UD.

The WW bout opposing Mike Swick (14-2) to Dan Hardy (22-6-1) is crucial for Swick as a victory brings him back in the mix for a shot at the title against champion George St-Pierre. Hardy, fighting in front of his compatriots, will attempt to make it seven wins in a row in his MMA career. Lines are Swick -210 and Hardy +165. This will be Hardy’s biggest challenge to date and, unfortunately, will be the only fight featuring a top 10 fighter (Swick) on this otherwise thin Mancunian card. Swick’s rapid release should stun Hardy and if his chin proves tough enough, Swick might come to out grapple him. In the second.

Four months after suffering a crushing KO to Dan Henderson in Las Vegas, MW Michael Bisping (17-2) will seek redemption when he faces Denis Kang (32-11-2). The sound level will be deafening, as the national favourite Bisping will provide effective stand up against an opponent who isn’t a slouch at boxing, but will prefer to get a submission if it proves more accessible. Of note, the UFC Countdown to 105 vignette showcasing Bisping carefully excluded footage of the blow(s) that capped his last appearance in the Octagon. Bisping, hoping this fight becomes a boxing match, will be tested by one of his toughest opponents on the ground and get submitted in the 2nd round. The silence following the submission should be stunning. Betting lines for that one are Denis Kang -125 Michael Bisping -105.

The WW bout between TUF 9 champion James Wilks (6-2) and TUF 7 contestant Matt Brown (9-7) should have fans looking at their screen sideways, as both fighters propose a grappling pedigree. But, as it has been known to happen in previous MMA events where curricula seemed to determine a fight before the bell signaled the beginning of the bout, both might want to make a statement and exchange standing up… before resorting to their favourite tools on the ground. Lines for that bout are Brown -155 and Wilks +125, making Brown the slight favourite. Nevertheless, Wilks should edge his rival in the 2^nd by TKO.

Last fight scheduled to be televised pits TUF 9 LW winner Ross Pearson (9-3) to Aaron Riley (28-11-1). Riley -200 and his Muay Thai skills position him as the early favourite against his English opponent (+160). Riley should stop Pearson in the 3^rd round by TKO.

Preliminary card predictions at a glance

If the aboriginal character of the 105^th event wasn’t apparent enough on the main card, with three of the five bouts featuring either English or British fighters, the prelims won’t leave any doubt as to the UFC’s desire to promote local talent. Of the 6 prelim. bouts, 5 involve local British fighters, while the WW fight between Paul Taylor and John Hathaway will offer an exclusively insular confrontation between Brits. That one should have the undefeated Hathaway continue on his win streak and edge his rival by UD.

LW bout between Terry Etim and Shannon Gugerty will have Etim win by SUB in the 2^nd.

The WW bout opposing Nick Osipczak and Matthew Riddle should have the American Riddle win by UD after a grueling duel that will mostly take place on the ground.

LW fight between Paul Kelly and Dennis Siver will see Siver win a UD.

LHW bout between Alexander Gustafsson and Jared Hamman will feature two guys who are up front about their strategy and skill sets: they put people to sleep. Expect Hamman to put the Swede to sleep in the 1^st. Could make the televised broadcast.

Lastly, the LW fight opposing TUF US vs. UK veteran Andre Winner to Rolando Delgado will have the national favourite, Winner, edge out his rival in a UD.

The Emperor limps but marches on and CBS gets expected ratings; results and analysis of Strikeforce/M-1 Global card

Weeks of build-up for MMA fans around the world were rewarded last night as the long awaited return of Fedor Emelianenko to MMA competition was televised to an unprecedented TV audience worldwide. It didn’t hurt either that the Emperor spectacularly confirmed his status as one the sport’s biggest draw by disposing of his opponent early in the second round.

According to tvbythenumbers.com, CBS’ ratings averaged 3.79 million for the event, on par with previous MMA bouts that the broadcaster had aired, winning the 10pm-11pm TV time slot battle among US broadcasters. In addition to the 30-some countries where distribution rights had been negotiated, Sherdog reports that M-1 Global had secured a deal for the event to be aired on Russia’s Channel One, the country’s free state-run channel, boasting a 120 million home reach.

The evening began with the HW fight opposing BRA fighters Fabricio Werdum to Antonio Silva. Silva rocked Werdum early and bullied him on the ground before Werdum landed a big right hand around a minute later. The initial bout ended with Silva inviting Werdum back to his feet to continue a stand up match. Silva made Werdum fall to the ground with a left hand early in the second engagement, but then appeared to gas out, allowing Werdum to display great BJJ skills, effectively winning the second round. Silva’s speed decreased even more in the third as Werdum dictated the pace and ended the round pounding at his opponent on the ground. The UD went to Werdum. During the post-fight presser, Strikeforce CEO Scott Coker confirmed that after having seen Werdum’s performance, a fight against Emelianenko seemed probable.

The LHW non-title bout between Sokoudjou and Strikeforce Champion Mousasi would turn out to be a kind of dress rehearsal for the main event, as the heavy favourite encountered surprising resistance from his rival before earning a convincing victory. Of note, Sokoudjou is one of the few of Mousasi’s opponents to have pushed the action passed the first round. He’s also one of the few that has taken Mousasi down, though proved incapable of keeping him there and taking advantage of that position. Mousasi’s ground skills were unmatched, reversing ground positions before finishing Sokoudjou by TKO (punches) late in the second round. Pleasant surprises consisted of Sokoudjou’s judo throws as well as his stand-up. On the down side, Mousasi’s finish seemed arduous, at least tougher than expected.

The MW championship bout opposing Jason Miller to Jake Shields proved that Shields’ decision to make it a ground match paid off, edging Miller to get the UD. A good back and forth fight that went the distance. It also highlighted the victor’s difficulty to finish opponents who share his talent on the ground. The champion might come to face the former belt-holder, Cung Le, in the New Year.

The main event featured Emelianenko, returning from a 10-month absence from MMA competition, facing brawler Brett Rogers for a non-title HW fight. Although Rogers gave a quick jab early in the first round that reopened a cut on Emelianenko’s nose,  the Emperor didn’t appear too phased by the ensuing gushing wound. Rogers pressed him against the fence for a good minute before Emelianenko attempted a trip that resulted in them resuming a sparring match in the center of the cage. The Russian then landed a huge left hook that appeared to rattle Rogers, and he pressed for a takedown. Rogers ended up out-muscling Emelianenko and reversed his position before landing several shots to Emelianenko who hadn’t experienced that much opposition on the ground in a long time. Rogers’ short-lived attack was followed by Emelianenko resuming an offensive grappling game, but unable to submit his larger opponent. The first round ended with Emelianenko’s unconvincing ground and pound while in Rogers’ guard.   

The second round saw a slower Rogers block a barrage of strikes, before he resorted to pressing Emelianenko against the fence, allowing himself to regain composure. When the fight resumed in the center of the cage, Rogers, both hands on the lower side of things, was caught by one of Emelianenko’s signature right overhand punches. He then pounced on the stunned Rogers who turned toward the ground before referee John MacCarthy stopped the bout (TKO punches) about mid-point in the second round. Although the Russian clearly out-skilled his opponent, he appeared uncomfortable with the size difference. This hadn’t been the case when he faced the mammoth Hong-Man Choi, though he is not to be considered a threat. On the other hand, Mark Hunt did give Emelianenko a good run back in late 2006, before getting subbed in the first round.

The question for Emelianenko and MMA fans is how long before a derby is organized that involves the HW championship.

CBS offered a good show, though for fans of the UFC, the amount of TV commercials shown really highlighted the difference between PPV and network television. As for the action and how it was captured, the broadcaster had great sound though more cameras might be required as viewers were sometimes blocked from the action by the referee.

GIF courtesy of: http://www.totalprosports.com/blog/index.php/2009/11/fedor-emelianenko-knocks-out-brett-rogers-in-2nd-round/

Strikeforce/M-I Global’s “Fedor v. Rogers” card; CBS betting it all on Fedor

The Russian HW mixed martial artist Emelianenko Fedor, also known among fans as ‘The Last Emperor’, gets his biggest audience to date as he faces HW Brett Rogers for a non-title fight at Strikeforce’s “Fedor vs. Rogers” MMA gala Nov. 7^th in the US. The four-fight main card headlined by Emelianenko is scheduled to be broadcast in over 30 countries around the world as Strikeforce promotions and M-1 Global joined forces to promote the event.

A lot has been written about the circumstances that led to this card ever taking place. Summing up, Affliction’s ‘Trilogy’ debacle last August prompted Emelianenko and other fighters to sign with Strikeforce, effectively confirming the new alliance between Strikeforce and M-1 as an emerging contender to the Ultimate Fighting Championship. Though Strikeforce/M-1’s roster of fighters pales in comparison to the UFC’s, it possesses two features that have cruelly eluded its competitor: a network television deal in the US and a contract with Emelianenko. Promoters hope the combination of US broadcaster CBS’ reach and Emelianenko’s MMA notoriety will make for a big draw and signal to other potential fighters its desire to rival the UFC in the long run.

But for now, the organization’s roster remains shallow enough to only allow for the top four fights to be televised live. Those include two HW bouts pitting Emelianenko to Rogers and Fabricio Werdum to Antonio Silva, a LHW bout opposing Emelianenko protégé Gegard Mousasi to Thierry Sokoudjou, and the MW fight between Jason ‘Mayhem’ Miller and Jake Shields.

The televised card will showcase two very talented and legitimate MW contenders in Shields (23-4-1) and media-darling ‘Mayhem’ (22-6). On paper, both fighters have solid grappling skills, although they stated in pre-fight interviews that they’d prefer this fight to remain a stand-up game. The odds on this fight are puzzling, as Miller is considered a heavy underdog (+235) to Shields (-300). Their relative equality on the ground doesn’t seem to warrant for that much disparity. Expect a stand-up game that might end to Miller’s advantage on the ground in the 3^rd. Fans should also be treated to an extravagant show by Miller as he makes his way to the cage. Classic.

On paper, the LHW fight between Mousasi (26-2-1) and Sokoudjou (7-4) isn’t terribly exciting, but it’ll nevertheless thrill MMA fans worldwide as they will get to witness a real contender in the 205 class. Sokoudjou will be outrageously dominated and odds reflect the recent successful development of Mousasi into one of the world’s best pound for pound fighters in the sport (Gegard Mousasi -500 vs. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou +365). Mousasi’s strategy is to win convincingly, thus if he feels that Sokoudjou is too complicated to KO, he will efficiently trip him up and pounce on him to finish him early (TKO or SUB). Either in the 1^st or early in the second d round. 

The first HW bout scheduled to air will pit two skilled grappling artists in Werdum (12-4-1) and A. Silva (13-1). Werdum is a slight favourite going in (-165), but Silva’s uncanny length could present grappling opportunities. His slight underdog status (+135) is well reflected in those odds. Werdum, who is actively seeking redemption as a hopeful HW contender, will be looking to defeat his opponent expediently. Maybe by TKO. For that, he’ll have to avoid overconfidence if he gets to bully Silva early on the ground, as the towering BRA fighter can’t be discounted.

Last but not least is the main event, featuring Emelianenko (30-1-1) and Rogers (10-0). The Russian’s last outing was not convincing, though he did end up KOing Arlovski back in January. He was bullied by his opponent before Arlovski tried to corner him and appeared to attempt a knee to Emelianenko, around the middle of the first round. Seconds earlier, Arlovski had kicked forward his opponent and seemed to rattle him. His hands down, he then took his first step forward, lifting the knee that was to land. As he began to do this, Emelianenko threw a big right hand upward that hit Arlovski straight on the jaw. The fight ended spectacularly fast, but glimpses of Emelianenko’s weakness when facing a good boxer didn’t go unnoticed. He will be facing a guy who has KO’ed 9 of his ten last opponents (though very few of renown), and hasn’t seen second round action more than twice. His greatest achievement up until now consists of KO’ing the same Arlovski, this time last June, as Rogers charged him from the moment the round began. This shouldn’t be understood as Rogers possessing great boxing skills, but rather as a reflection of his devastating power. Interestingly, up until last April, Rogers held his full-time job changing tires at a Sam’s Club store.

Emelianenko has loads of experience, power and skill on his side. He is the overwhelming favourite to do a few things (-550), namely get CBS’ full attention in relation to investing into MMA distribution by making a HL reel that’ll become viral and beat a much lesser fighter than he is. Strikeforce’s HW roster is really shallow, to say the least. Its current champion Alistair Overeem hasn’t defended his belt in ages, as he privileged fighting in other promotions (Dream and K-1), illustrating the lack of attraction the promotion had experienced towards top tier fighters. CBS’ numerous advertisements during football programming over the past few weeks display the broadcaster’s level of commitment. The broadcaster is betting heavily on this to revive Strikeforce’s brand and invest money into talent acquisition to eventually become an alternative to the dominating organization owning the MMA professional market as of today, the UFC. And with the rumoured possible signature of Dan Henderson…

Rogers is a huge underdog (+375), but could be strong enough to seriously test Emelianenko’s chin. He has gone so far as to predict he will KO Fedor within the first 3 minutes of the first round. As he undertakes to do that, he may want to avoid Emelianenko’s overhand and straight punches. But there’s a very small chance that it could happen were Rogers to push the pace relentlessly and land a few blows. Fedor’s economic style of fighting should make for Rogers to be subbed once slightly rocked and brought to the ground. It might last as long as the second round.

Post 104 analysis (part II) – or how guys might get resigned and others dumped from the big show

 

The much anticipated HW bout opposing Pat Barry to Antoni Hardonk did not disappoint, as it was impressive and surprising. Hardonk showed early preference for kicks while Barry’s short reach didn’t deter him from attempting to land with vicious power every punch thrown. In the second round, though encumbered by a swollen eye due to a poke, he took Hardonk’s measure and landed at will until he finished him on the mat, with a huge and undefended right hand to the face. Hardonk rolled over from the pain and the referee called it to an end. Hardonk was expected to turn in a much better performance. He appeared much slower than his opponent. As for Barry’s fists, they were quick, laser sharp and very potent. He proved willing to take kicks to be able to land punches. The big question here is who will the UFC management match him up against for his next outing. Unless he learns ground skills, interesting fights from him will unfortunately be rare. But in K-1, he’s a real contender. Just saw a K -1 clip of him against Gary Goodridge from 2007. Goodridge being a can notwithstanding, Barry dented his legs quite a bit. And quickly. Salaries for that affair were $14,000, including a $7,000 win bonus for Pat Barry, whereas Hardonk got $16,000. Suspensions were 180 days for Barry without contact, for possible left wrist fracture due to hitting Hardonk’s head without reserve and 45 days for Hardonk, of which 30 days without contact, for precautionary reasons. The clip from 2007 had Hardonk AND Hoost in his corner to face Goodridge, correcting a previous post (re: UFC 104 predictions) that turned erroneous about Barry not having been supported by Hoost before.

The LHW Bader v. Schafer fight was odd in its pace, as Bader dominated early on with strikes and then seemed to gas out in the second round, before regaining energy and giving a last effort to seal the deal for a UD. Though Schafer appeared to spar comfortably, he never really landed. As for his ground game, apart from a one attempt, was almost entirely defensive. Too bad. Bader netted $30,000 for the bout, including a $15,000 win bonus, whereas Schafer got $13,000. Schafer was suspended 60 days without contact for nose laceration.

Joe Stevenson gave a good performance against Spencer Fisher, for what turned out to be the only LW bout on the card, as the other one between Tibau and Neer moved to catchweight (157).  Stevenson was the heavy favourite going in, though 2 of 3 Sherdog staff gave the first to Fisher. Then in the second round, Stevenson grabbed a foot that Fisher threw his way before pulling him down on the mat where he served Fisher an overwhelming helping of elbows. Ended in the 2nd by stoppage. ‘Big Daddy’ looked a lot more toned than he did in previous bouts. He didn’t complain about cutting and maintaining weight this time, so it might not be a stretch to surmise, among other things, that he picked up a book about nutrition and gave it a good read. Following the bout, Fisher was suspended 60 days without contact for right eye laceration.  He earned every penny of his $26,000 paycheck. Stevenson received $94,000 that includes a $47,000 win bonus.

Catchweight opponents Gleison Tibau and Josh Neer turned in a tough match that favoured Tibau in the end, earning a UD. Neer unfortunately never appeared to be able to dominate and was taken and/or slammed down at will by the BRA grappler. Tibau earned $38,000 which includes a $19,000 win bonus, while Neer fought for $14,000. Disappointing for Neer, as this might mean the end for him in the UFC.

The other fight that saw its label change due to weight pitted Anthony Johnson to Yoshiyuki Yoshida. The WW turned catchweight (176!!) confirmed Johnson’s insane punching power. This one lasted 41 seconds. Johnson’s $30,000 purse (including a $15,000 win bonus) was docked 20% for not coming close to making the mandatory 171 lbs weight requirement. Yoshiyuki Yoshida’s $12,000 paycheck will go entirely to his second recovery from a devastating KO (read concussion) in less than a year (the first, courtesy of Josh Koschek). The official version (post fight doctors) claims he will be suspended 45 days, 30 days of which without contact, for precautionary reasons. Still, that doesn’t appear to be enough time for Yoshida to learn how to make a sustainable livelihood in MMA. The same might be said about Johnson’s insistence to cut around 50 lbs to make weight (and fail at that) to fight as WW. That can’t be sustainable either. Following this second ‘piñata’ performance, it will be interesting to see if the UFC extends Yoshida’s contract once it runs its course. Fear not, he will easily shine in other promotions.

Continuing with that theme, Struve’s submission victory in the 1st round over Chase Gormley (triangle choke) made it to air. Though on the undercard, his impressive performance might secure a contract extension. He has amazing talent, but needs to develop strength. He is 21. He has just fought his 21st bout, and won for the 18th time, of that 17 times before the bell. He earned $14,000, including a $7,000 win bonus, whereas Gormley fought for $10,000.

The rest of the evening went like this:

Chael Sonnen: ($54,000 includes $27,000 win bonus) def. Yushin Okami: ($18,000) Not a surprise if once his contract is up, Okami doesn’t get resigned.

Jorge Rivera: ($36,000 includes $18,000 win bonus) def. Rob Kimmons: ($9,000)

Kyle Kingsbury: ($16,000 includes $8,000 win bonus) def. Razak Al-Hassan: ($3,000)

UFC 104; uproar over Machida decision – or Shogun got robbed

The last UFC gala showcasing Machida’s first title defense as a LHW champion was anything but predictable and satisfying, as the two top bouts brought their share of controversy with regards to refereeing.

Beginning with the LHW championship fight between Machida and Rua, all statistical reports available point to a win by Rua. Some bloggers (especially Machida fans) have argued that watching the replay of the bout without the sound on (e.g. without Joe Rogan’s comments) confirms the UD given to Machida. This might only confirm whether their mute button functions properly.

It is important to state that the fight didn’t yield a lot of offensive action from both fighters, though more from Rua, making Machida appear to be avoiding slightly more than initiating action. Having said that, when a bout goes the distance, judges revert to the ten-point must system, based on the following criteria: effective aggressiveness, effective technique, cage/ ring control, defense / escapes. Though it is obvious that Rua didn’t throw any real kicks and punches that could have ended the bout, he threw many more kicks than his opponent, pushed the action for the vast majority of those five rounds and directed Machida towards the periphery of the cage to improve his angling and combinations. Machida landed more body strikes. According to that set of criteria (no judgment about its relevance, simply following it: http://www.fightmetric.com/fights/Machida-Shogun.html), Shogun should have been awarded the win. Had it been a split decision for either fighter, it would have created a small commotion. A unanimous decision effectively sent the blogoshpere ablaze.

Days after 104, Machida was operated for bone fragment removal around the wrist area, requiring a six week convalescence period. This will also afford time to recuperate from Rua’s devastating leg kicks. The UFC wishes to set up a re-match as quickly as possible to clear things up. It is expected that Machida’s time away from training will delay that from happening until early in the New Year. According to MMA Mania, the only medical suspension following that bout went to Lyoto Machida, 60 days without contact, for upper lip laceration. Salaries were $200,000 (no win bonus) going to Machida and $155,000 for Rua.

HW Cain Velasquez and Ben Rothwell’s bout proved that Velasquez’ biggest challenge still remained Kongo. Rothwell looked downright awful. Again, Velasquez’ inability to adequately finish his opponent indicated that he might actually be a bit small for larger and more athletically inclined potential fighters such as Carwin, Lesnar and Gonzaga. Interestingly, discord ensued about the way the fight was stopped (the referee stopped it as Rothwell was still going full tilt at the “all-you-can-eat punches” buffet served up by Velasquez, AND getting back up to his feet, while pressed against the cage). It is very safe to assume that Rothwell would have continued getting mauled for the remainder of the bout had the fight not been stopped when it did. It also highlights, again, Velasquez’ lack of punching power.

After having witnessed this outcome a few times before in Velasquez’ case, he might want to consider reverting to grappling as a fight ending strategy instead of punches. There’s no shame for a wrestler to submit his opponents, though the UFC brass obviously prefers strikes and KO’s (it’s a wonder the UFC gives Submission of the Night bonuses, given the unstoppable appetite for punches by fans and, directly, the organization’s promoters. Demand-driven spectator sports, especially in times of amazing expansion (as it is the case for MMA), are expected to produce highlight reels. And for MMA, popular opinion has KO’s ranking the highest on the list, an outcome that isn’t always feasible). As long as some fighters continue to privilege their boss’ satisfaction over effective strategizing (i.e. not winning in a manner suiting the dynamics of the bout or one’s abilities), spectators will continue to witness fights where Gurgel, Sherk, Velasquez, etc. will prefer to fight using their fists. A true shame but indicative of the overwhelming popularity, and visual power, of KOs. Moreover, it can’t hurt that UFC promoters wish for short fights to increase the number of televised bouts during UFC events.  Salaries for that fight were of $70,000 (including a $35,000 win bonus) for Velasquez and $50,000 for Rothwell. Following the event, Rothwell was suspended 60 days without contact, for right eyebrow laceration.